Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. GBPUSD has been looking weak for the past few days along with EU and has visited its lows at around 1.5075 twice over the last few days. It now has major support at 1.5137 and then just below at 1.5075.

I believe that it will take some time for GU to break these 2 supports and we could see a retracement back into 1.52 and the price action there would tell us whether the pair would continue up or would start moving down once again.

On the downside, as pointed out, there would be strong supports at 1.5137 and then at 1.5075. A break of these supports would lead to a drop to the round number at 1.50.

On the upside, the targets are 1.5175 and then 1.5250. I expect a retracement back to 1.52 for today and then a break of 1.5250 will signal a further upmove and a coninuation of the uptrend... A break of 1.5075 will signal a down move.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. The fall from 1.37 continues and this shows that 1.37 has indeed proved to be a temporary and the 2 day bearish pin bar seems to have worked just fine.

EU is now close to a very strong temporary support at 1.3428 and this could be a place for small longs with tight SL the first time that it visits this price. With the strong support just below, i am looking for a small retracement back to the 1.35s and after that, it purely depends on the price action on whether it wants to continue up or go down.

As pointed out, on the downside, the support is at 1.3428 and the break of that could lead to 1.3380 and then to 1.33 which should again be a very strong support.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.3460 and then at the round number at 1.35. A break of this could then lead to 1.3550 and at this point, it will be important to see if this resistance is broken convincingly. If yes, then we are going back up. If no, if are continuing down.

Market and the Frictionless Ball

All of you would have seen the supports and resistances which i provide to all on a daily basis. These S and R are points in which the price is expected to stall and also there is a greater probability of the price falling from the resistance than it breaking. Thats what make the S and R useful and powerful.

But the big mistake that many traders make is to follow the S and R blindly. When the price nears a support or a resistance, we need to analyse the market situation as well as the market sentiment before we decide whether we are going to enter into the trade or not.

The market is like the frictionless ball which keeps rolling in one direction unless and until acted upon by a force. Everyday, atleast 3 forces act on the ball (market). These are the begin of the Asian session, European session and the American session. Apart from these three forces, there could be other forces like news, press conferences, rate hikes etc. but everyday will have atleast 3 forces. Lets say that in the begin of the Asian session, the ball is rolling in favor of the longs. The Asian traders would either choose to slow down the ball or force it to travel in the same direction faster or force it to reverse. Whichever is the direction, the ball keeps rolling in that direction till the begin of the European session (unless there is some news in between. If there is news, then that would be another force which will make the ball gain momentum or change direction). Likewise, the European traders would also make the ball move in a specific direction (either same or reverse). This trend continues during the American session as well and would be interrupted only by news etc.

So when entering a trade based on S and R, it is important to know what time it is and which direction the ball is rolling. The best example would be a day when in the begin of the Asian session, the ball began to roll in the direction of the longs. This continued in the Euro session as well. So midway, through the Euro session it would be foolish to enter into a short just cos we have met a resistance. The ball is rolling in favor of longs from the Asian session and continues thru the Euro session and since there has been nothing to change that direction, it is expected to roll in that direction only till the next force (like the news or begin of American session) comes in. So in such cases, it is better to wait for the next force to come in to get the correct direction (whether the force continues the move in the same direction or reverses it) before entering in the market. For example, on the above day, it would not have been a great idea to enter into shorts at any time just cos a resistance was near.

So always keep in mind the frictionless ball and trade accordingly.

Latest Updates on Signal Service Trial

The signal service has been going on for the past 3 days as trial. It has 57 subscribers for the trial. The first day was a good day, the trend was easy and neat and quite a few pips were made during that day. 17 calls were given on that day and only 2 were losses. Rest of the calls all turned into good profits.

The second day was a tough day to trade and hence very few calls were given and towards the end of the day, we were just above break even. But the last 2 hours of the trading day was good and 6 calls were made during that period yielding 142 pips in those 2 hours.

The third day (Friday) was a freaky day with prices moving back and forth and trading proving highly difficult. Trading was a struggle till midway of the trading day when a signal was given to long GJ and i requested people to hold it beyond the SL which was wrong on my part. The DD was close to 200 pips but i still felt that long was the way to go. The price came right back up vindicating my belief but by then few traders had closed at a loss. Couple of long calls were given on GJ and EJ which helped recover losses for some of the traders while some others were either stuck with the trade or with the loss.

143.4 still is strong support for GJ.

Last 3 days had 2 swing trades on EURCAD and USDCAD which yielded more than 300 pips which made it a decently profitable week for those who took all my trades.

I have decided to extend the trial by one more day to compensate for the Freaky Friday and hope to make good progress over the next 3 trading days.

My day trades are based on 5M and 15M and usually require less than 50 pips as SL and my swing trades are based on daily or weekly charts and need 200 pips as SL and have 200-300 pips as TP. The trades are based on simple PA and are straight get-in get-out type.. No confusing algos or indicators.

Many trades and types of trades are taken to enable people who prefer different ways of trading and who live in different time zones to take trades. It also helps people, irrespective of the time zone that they live in , to make atleast 50 pips in 2-3 hrs of trading time. Thats why i give more than 30-40 calls a day as i want to cover as many traders as possible at various points of time.

Looking forward to another 3 great trading days.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

Attached is the 1H chart of GBPUSD. This pair, like EU, also has been showing some good strength. The comments from King does seem to have affected it and hence there was quite a big fall of about 300 pips but this fall only provided us an opportunity to buy cheap.

This pair does seem to have a strong support at 1.51 and for now, as can be seen from the charts, this pair has been trading in a small range for quite a few hours now. There seems to be a small support at 1.5215 for now.

On the downside, the major support are at 1.52 and then at 1.5137 followed by a huge support at 1.5075. This last support is a big support and is unlikely to be broken in a hurry.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.5250, 1.53 and a major resistance, with previous highs, at around 1.5340. This last major resistance needs to be broken for any more upside.

For today, i have an upside bias and i expect a small retracement back into 1.51s and then a move above 1.5250. It would be interesting to see whether the previous highs at 1.5335 is taken out convincingly and if they are, we should be in for a big ride.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. This pair continues to show amazing strength. It seems to be unmindful of bearish pin bars in 2day or 4H and just simply wants to keep going up.

I guess the strength of the USD has been only short lived and we may seen another leg up soon on this pair. The 1H chart shows some small support at 1.3520 for this pair.

On the downside the supports are at 1.3611 and 1.3575. A break of these two should lead to the very strong support at around 1.3550 and i do not expect price to fall below this strong support.

On the upside, the resistance are at 1.3650 and then very closely at 1.3672 which should prove to be a very strong resistance. The next major resistance is around the round figure at 1.37. We need a good break of this for any more upside.

For today, i expect more ranging . I would try to trade the range with bias to the upside and if there is a break in either direction (below 1.3550 or 1.37), then i would tend to take the trade in that direction for a big ride.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. By the look of things, EU seems to have reached a temporary. It faced stiff resistance at around 1.37 and the volume and the price bar at that level was enough indication that the buyers did not like that high price.

So, from 1.37, it has fallen more than 100 pips now. This pair now has strong support at 1.3550 and it will take a bit of time for this support to get broken.

On the downside, there is strong support at 1.3550. A clean break of that could lead to 1.3450 and a break of that could lead to 1.33. This pair looks bearish to me and hence i would be looking for break of supports or a retracement on the upper side to enter shorts.

On the upper side, there is small resistance at 1.3611 and a strong one at 1.3672. I do not expect this resistance to be broken but if it does, we are bak to being bullish again and we should face next resistance at 1.37 which should be a major one.