Weekly Outlook for EURAUD

This seems to be a pair that is poised for a good move. This pair has been on the downward trend for quite sometime now and its a disappointment that we did not notice this pair earlier. A look at the weekly chart shows how much of a downtrend it has been for the past few weeks with not much of a correction so far. The daily chart shows that a major support for this pair at 1.81 has been broken this week after trying for 3-4 days. The daily chart also reveals that it is now at a small support at 1.8066. I expect the support to be broken and if it does get broken, the daily and weekly chart shows a clear move to 1.7650 without much of a support anywhere.

So, a clear break of 1.8066 should then lead to a drop of atleast 300 pips within 3-4 days. A good move is possible.

Weekly Outlook for GBPUSD

GBPUSD hit its high around 1.5 and poked its head a bit above that. There was a failure at this level and price came down. Both the weekly and daily chart would show that there is strong support at 1.4648. The daily chart would also reveal that everytime price approached this support level, there has been good buying and the price has been pushed back above. The upcoming week should be interesting to see if the support at 1.4648 holds. If it does not, then we could go down all the way to 1.42. If the support does hold, then we could see some ranging next week between 1.46 and 1.50.

Weekly Outlook for GBPJPY

Have a look at the weekly chart of GBPJPY. You can clearly see that 150 has proved to be a very tough resistance, as expected. Unless that resistance is well and truly broken, we will be ranging with a bearish bias. Switching down to the daily charts, we find that GBPJPY closed below its important support at 146.8. If this break of support holds, then we could revisit 145 and then 143.5 in the upcoming week.

EURAUD heading lower

EURAUD broke through major support. Attached is the daily chart for EURAUD and so far 1.81 had served as very strong support for the past 3-4 days but today, the support has been broken. I expect the fall to continue unless there is a retracement back above the support. Maybe a short now could have a good risk reward ratio. reverse the trade if the price crosses back above support.

Pin bar on GBPUSD

ell
Attached is the 4H chart for GBPUSD...As you can see there is a nice looking pin bar on it and that too off a major support as well. How you need to trade this is to wait for the price to break the top of the previous bar and then take a long. The break has not happened yet but i expect it to happen soon. Good volume on the previous bar as well..

Daily Supports and Resistances

Below are the supports and resistances for various pairs for today :

EURUSD - Strong support at 1.3153. Break of that could move price to 1.3123 and then to 1.3090. Resistance at 1.3184. Break of that could make price move to 1.3214 and then to 1.3250.

GBPUSD - Strong support at 1.4893. Break of that could move price to 1.4862 and then to 1.4832. Resistance at 1.4923. Break of that could make price move to 1.4954 and then to 1.5015.

GBPJPY - Strong support at 148.44. Break of that could move price to 147.66 and then to 146.88. Resistance at 149.22. Break of that could make price move to 150.

EURJPY - Strong support at 130.47. Break of that could move price to 129.70. Resistance at 131.25. Break of that could make price move to 132.

GBPCHF - Strong support at 1.7090. Break of that could move price to 1.7050. Resistance at 1.7151. Break of that could make price move to 1.72 and then to 1.7330.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

A look into the 4H chart of the GBPUSD reveals an interesting thing. Every dip into the mid or low 1.48s has been met with a lot of support and a lot of buying and price has been pushed right back up. This should set the trend up for today where price could again make a run at 1.5 with 1.4820 acting as strong support. Break of this could take GU down to 1.4770.

EURAUD hits temporary bottom

EURAUD seems to have hit a temporary low. Looking at the daily charts, EURAUD has beeen having a downward traversal for the past several days with the strength of AUD and the weakness of EUR. Now, the strength of AUD seems to have tapered off with it facing strong resistance at 0.8324 and hence EURAUD now has some strong temporary support at around 1.81. With all this, we can see that EURAUD has a chance of going upto 1.85 and once it reaches there , we need to re evaluate its strengt
h.

GBPCHF continues its March

GBPCHF continues its upward march. As pointed out yesterday, we broke important resistances and as can be seen from the attached chart, we have strong support now at around 1.7150. The fact that there has been high volume when price moved into this support area shows that there is good buying there. We should see some more upside in this. A move towards 1.73 is feasible.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

Attached is the chart for GU. As pointed out yesterday, GU managed to break through strong resistance at 1.5015. The price has now moved up to 1.5050 and there is a tired looking feeling about it. There is another resistance at 1.5076 and a major resistance at 1.5157. I really doubt whether the price would be able to cross both these levels.

Support would come in at 1.5015 ( a very strong support) and then a 1.4954

Daily Outlook for GBPJPY

As updated in our daily review yesterday, all pairs managed to break their important resistances. Lets take the case of GBPJPY first. It broke through strong resistance at 149.2 and went up to 149.8. As i write, it is making a retrace and will go near 149.2 before it starts going up. The resistance points would be 150 first, then the previous high of 151.5 where again some retrace should happen. If both these are broken, then next target would be 155.5.

As seen from the chart, supports are at 149.2 and 148.4.

Daily Review of GBPJPY

Another crazy day for GJ which has become quite normal for this pair. As can be seen from the chart, a break down into the very strong support area at 145.7 provided a good chance to exit shorts for me and those who take signals from me. A pin bar on the hourly and with low volume suggested that the selling interest was low. A break of strong resistance at 146.88 suggested the trigger for longs for the ride upto yesterday high and another strong resistance to 149.2.

Todays move was a surprise to me as i did not expect price to go up. But the fact that i am not a swing trader helped me and i was able to move in and out of trades based purely on price action.

As i write, GJ is trying to break its good support at 148.4. I expect ranging to continue with bias towards the upside. But this is not the time for swing trades. Just trade the PA and simply run with whatever profits that you can get.

Daily Review of GBPCHF

Attached is the chart of GBPCHF. As suggested yesterday, GC had broken very strong resistance at 1.70. Once a resistance is broken, it becomes weak and so the break of it again over the next few hours is very easy. So even though , GC, after the break of 1.70 went down 1.6935, it had strong support there. As can be seen, there was strong accumulation at around 1.6935. This is confirmed by the fact that all down bars around this price were met with high volume which showed buying.

So after accumulation at support. GC made a huge move up , broke the resistance again and thus far has managed to go upto more than 1.71. I expect it to move some more and get close to 1.73. Else if it does break 1.6935, we will be going down a lot.

Daily Review for GU

Strange day . Such wild moves in all currencies. No indicator would have survived today. Only your knowledge of the market and PA would have saved you. If you look at the pairs, they made a huge dip down, then a huge upward movement , then down and now they are up again. A crazy day, you would think. But if you look at the charts with MM levels, you can see how beautifully the price moved within the SR. Attached is the 1H GU chart. As you can see the price moved towards the support at 1.4832 and it fooled me into thinking that today would be a bearish . But thankfully, i got out of my shorts when price pulled back from there and then the price continued its bullish run till it hit the resistance at 1.5015 to the pip. This resistance, along with the fact that we were close to a round number, made me exit my longs and the same was also passed on as a signal.

Now the price is again attempting to break higher. Watching PA now and GU looks good for more though i am flat and awaiting a break.

GU looking weak

GU looking weak. It has strong resistance at 1.4893 and this couple with the fact that there is strong resistance at the round number of 1.50, we should be seeing a good fall on this soon. Attached is the chart.

EJ and GU

EJ also looking very weak. It broke down below its daily support at 131.25
and going down further. Those who are not short in EJ yet can wait for EJ
to move to 130.7 or so (if it does move there) to get into shorts for a
minimum of 100 pips.

As for GU, it has strong support till upto 1.4850. Clean break of that
support will cause a fall for atleast 100 pips as well.

I am just trying to post this blog entry through my email. Dont know how it
comes up on the blog though.

Daily Preview of GJ

GJ looks weak today.Coupled with the fact that the stock markets are also weak, this spells danger for longs. 146.8 looks like a strong support but its only a matter of time before it breaks. I expect a push towards 147.5 and then a big drop down to break the support and go all the way till 145.5..The range is getting narrower by the hour which would mean that a big breakout is coming. I expect a break down towards 145.5 and then to 143.7..

If it indeed manages to go till 148, then we can expect 149 and then 150. But i doubt this scenario.

Daily Review on other pairs

AS for other pairs, in the morning i was convinced that AU would break its huge resistance at 0.8325 but its a surprise to me that it has not and even more a surprise that it has fallen back down. No trades on this today as i was busy with the other pairs.

As for EU, the only pair which has caused me loss over the past 2 days. I was convinced that it was bearish and had taken a short yesterday but had to suffer a loss of 69 pips. If i had stayed in the trade, i would have made pips today but thats how it goes. I am still bearish on this.

USDCAD, made a few pips (around 20-30) on shorts on break of yesterdays lows. It can go lower only if support at around 1.2100 is broken. I am neutral on this with a very slight bearish bias.

Daily Review on EURAUD

This is a pair that i am proud of today cos very few people watch this pair. I dont watch this as well but somehow i was convinced about the strength of AU and weakness of EU and so i decided to watch this pair today. Took a short on break of major support at 1.8311 and rode it down all the way to 1.8201. Just the single trade. I was expecting a bigger drop today and the upsurge after the move down is still a big surprise to me. But made good pips on the single trade. Have not taken any positions. I normally start the day with a specific bias for each pair in my mind and usually make pips with that bias. If price moves in the opposite direction, i generally stay out until i can get my mind changed about the bias.

Daily Review for GC

As for GC, wonderful day today for it. I had called during mid day that a break of 1.7 was imminent and thats what happened. Attached is the chart. Myself and my signal takers took 4 trades on this today right from 1.69 taking profits all along the way. We kept buying on dips and all 4 trades ended in sizeable profit. The 1 H pin bar off resistance at 1.7059 suggested a drop. The fact that the pin bar was with low volume was further proof that there was no interest in higher prices and this suggested a drop. No shorts taken yet as i am yet to be convinced that the bullish trend has changed. Also, have made enough profits on this today. So staying aside for now.

Daily Review on GJ

Another crazy day today with all pairs moving right up and then right down and then doing it one more time. No clear trend emerging so towards the fag end of the day, with the bad US news, the bears seem to have taken over.

Attached is the 1H chart of GJ which shows how the price was tight ranging today with a double hourly high at 6/8 MM level and the low close to 0/8 MM level. As can be seen, there is strong support at 146.88 which should serve as good support atleast until London session tomorrow. Any dip towards that, we could take longs. Nice trading for myself and people who take my signals as we took a long in dips to 147.8 and rode them till around 148.8. We did this twice today which was good for close to 200 pips.

We did not take the ride down as i still dont think that the bullish trend has changed. Now, i am just staying aside on this.

GBPCHF

GC finally broke through strong resistance at 1.7 and it looks like a clean break so far. The first target would be 1.7090 but it could go all the way to 1.73 ultimately...

Another GJ chart

Crucial times for GJ and other currencies now. London about to open and GJ is at strong support...this has been tested twice and both times we have had strong buying from there....if its broken, down we go...if it holds, thats the confirmation of longs at full flow...

GJ chart

Attached is a chart of GJ in 15M...It is a current one. Here you can see that whenever price comes down and gets near 147.8 or so, there has been high volume which shows that buyers are getting in and trying to accumulate. We can also see a beautiful pin bar at the bottom of the swing. You wait for the pin bar to break on the upside and then u go long and thus you would have made 30 pips by now. This is how you watch price action. Strong resistance at 148.44. Only a matter of time before it breaks.

Things to look forward to

Well, an interesting day yesterday. A day for the Euro , something which was totally unexpected by me. To me, everything pointed to a down day for Euro. But anyway, i still feel that the Euro is weak and we could expect it to go down from now.

But, as expected, the AU showed a lot of strength. Right now, it is hitting against a huge resistance...A clean break of 0.7325 should take it a lot higher. Considering how it has been ranging so far, i am sure it could go to 0.7800 if and when it manages to break 0.7325. I guess the break should happen today.

With me expecting weakness in the euro and strength in aud, it might be good time to short euraud today.

Lets see.

So what do you do on slow days?

I often get asked on what i do on such slow days such as today when the movements are so less and so slow as well. I either not trade the market or if i am very bored and i do happen to trade, i try to find the range that the market is in. On such days, market, i mean each pair, tries to stick within a specific range . So, our aim is to find the range , wait for the price to reach the bottom or top of the range and go long or short respectively.

Not only that , i increase the lot size and decrease my TP and SL so that my leverage remains the same. I do this when the range is narrow and there are not many pips to be made.

AUDUSD

As expect, AU has broken through strong resistance at 0.7202 and has stayed above it. Expect it to move on to 0.7260 for today.

Ranging

All the pairs having some crazy moves for now. I guess they are establishing their ranges for what could be a slow day. I guess its the weekend hangover thats making them run up and down for now. Should settle down as we head to London. We could continue to take longs and shorts when we reach the bottom and top of the range.

Type of Trader

As most traders would know, good trading is all about having a good trading psychology. For this, you need to understand yourself. There is a famous Indian song which says that if you know what you are, if you know what you can do and what you cannot do, if you know what your limitations are, you can always succeed in life. Whatever happens to you, you will never lose your self respect and you will always be successful.

So, try to understand yourself and choose a trading method that is fit for your psychology. There are basically traders who are scalpers and traders who are medium to long term. Scalpers get in and get out of markets very quickly. Their trades last for about an hour or lose and their profits vary from 7-8 pips to 100 or more pips (if they are lucky enough). They have a SL of mac 30-50 pips. Medium/long term traders trade with a view of 1 week to several weeks Their TP is hundreds of pips and so is their SL.

But what happens is, most traders cant stick to one trading psychology. They start out thinking that they are scalpers looking for 10-15 pips. They do take a few trades as scalpers but find that after they took profits, the trade went their way for several hundred pips. So, next time they are tempted and wait a little longer but then suddenly, the trade moves in the opposite direction and gets close to their scalping SL. They suddenly start thinking like a medium term trader. They think 'why dont we let this run and maybe it would turn back'. What happens ? even though they increase their SL, it still gets hit and they lose 150 pips or more. Imagine losing 150 pips aiming for a TP of 15 pips ??!!

Vice versa for medium term traders. They start off thinking to go for medium term for SL and TP of more than hundred pips but when the trade starts moving against them for 20 pips, they get scared and get out of the trade only for the trade to turn around and hit their TP....Or they get satisfied with just 20 pips profit and they start taking their profit too soon.

All the above is perfectly the wrong way of trading. Decide what kind of a trader you are and stick to it, whatever happens. If you are a scalper like me, have small TP and SL and take them as and when you see it. Dont bother about the trade after closing it. The more you bother about a closed trade, the more it affects you psychologically.

So understand who you are and trade. And always follow the KISS principle. Keep It Simple Stupid !!