Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. Similar to EURUSD, yesterday was a ranging day for GU as well considering all the news that has been lined up today. Today should be a fun day for all pairs and it should be more fun tomorrow as well with several pairs breaking out of ranges and pairs reversing their current trends. Its a pity that i wont be around for the next 2 trading days.

Anyway, coming back to GU, as can be seen from the ranging yesterday, the support is at 1.5015 and the resistance is at 1.5150. All the news today should break this pair out of this range.

As in EU, the strength so far shows that longs could be in serious play later in the day and i expect a breakout to the upside after all the news releases today. On the upside, the first resistance would of course be the highs of yesterday which is 1.5150. A break of this should clear the way for a move towards 1.54 with small resistances in between at 1.5250 and 1.53.

On the downside, we should have good support at 1.51 and 1.5010 and i do not expect 1.5010 to be broken today. If it does get broken, the next major support would be at 1.4900 and 1.4770.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As can be seen, EU has continued merrily with its ranging for the whole day yesterday. This is something that was expected as there is so much of news today. We should be expecting a breakout today and considering the strength of EU so far, i believe that EU will breakout on the upside today.

On the upside, the targets would be 1.3336 and if this is broken , then there will be a small resistance at yesterday's high at around 1.3370. If this is broken, then there should be a major resistance at 1.3428 which has seen previous highs and hence should be a strong resistance. A break of this should open up 1.36 and then 1.37.

On the downside the supports will be at 1.3275, then yesterdays low at 1.3214 and then a major support at 1.3184. I dont expect this support to be broken but if it does get broken, then we should be looking at 1.31 and 1.3050.

Updates on GBPJPY and future direction

Attached is the 1H chart of GJ. Today morning, we saw GJ going down nicely to its big support at 146.88. The pace with which the move was made and that too during the Asian session gave us the indication that something was not right with the move down.

Usually, in any sudden move up or down, we need look out for pin bars which tell us that there is a change of the price move. As can be seen in the chart, a bullish pin bar at the swing low was an indication that price would reverse and thats what it did.

You can also see that at every swing point, the price bars clearly tell you the change the direction. All you need to do is watch the bars and take the trade accordingly. Any bar finishing near its middle after piercing through a support or resistance shows change in the direction of price movement and thats what you can clearly see in all the bars where there was a reversal.

The fact that there was no more down movement after the Asian session and the fact that the price has recovered somewhat shows that there is still strength left in GJ and it looks good for more. Long on dips is the way to go.

Updates on Signal Service

Till now, I have 26 people who have signed up for the free trial so far. The free trial should start after i come back from my vacation. It should start either on May 13 or 14 and i will be giving free signals for 5 trading days.

I am also working on giving some good swing trades which would be useful for those who cannot be logged on for the whole day. Of course, these swing trades would be worth 500 pips a week on an average. Lets see how things go.

For those who have not signed up yet, the trial is still open till May 12 and they can mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com anytime before that so that we can set things up.

On Vacation

Hi,
I will be on vacation from tomorrow (Thursday, May 7). Tomorrow, I will be making the usual morning update on this blog and then i would leave towards the evening. So, there will be no updates on this blog on May 8, 9, 10 and 11 and i will be back with the usual updates on May 12. It looks like a very busy and crazy week and so enjoy your trading !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart of EURUSD. As can be seen, there has been a big breakdown in the price and it has now come out of the range that it was in yesterday. The USD seems to have gained in strength across the board for all currency pairs.

EU has broken though support at 1.3330 and now has also broken major support at 1.3306. Unless it climbs back this support soon, we could see EU revisit its next major support which is at 1.3184.

On the downside , there is small support at 1.3275, then a strong one at 1.3245 and finally a very strong support at 1.3184 which has also been a low for some days of last week and hence should provide good support. I do not see EU going below 1.3184 today.

On the upper side, EU should face resistance at 1.3306 and then at 1.3340 and finally should move to 1.3420. I foresee some more ranging today though the range would be bigger than what it was yesterday. EU should not be falling below 1.3184 today.

Wrapup of Daily movements of Pairs

A good ranging day for all the currencies and the only breakout that we saw today was on GBPUSD. Now lets start with EURUSD. As pointed out in the morning, we had a ranging day today with 1.3428 proving to be a tough resistance to break and 1.3330 proving to be a tough support to break so far. Those who had the guts to pull the trigger on either side would have made good pips today.

I believe we might have a small breakout on the EU sometime tomorrow and the major day would of course be Thursday when the rates and statement would be released. The latest fall of EU to its lows at 1.3330 seems to be on low volume which suggests that it might move up again...

Moving on to GBPUSD, there was a small breakout which was capped by tough resistance at 1.5150 and today this pair ranged between 1.5015 and 1.5150. With a lot of news being released this week, we should see a break of this range soon and am in favor of longs though i could be wrong.

Now , moving on to the JPY crosses, these pairs also ranged for most of the day. GJ was caught in the range between 148.4 and 150 and it would indeed take a lot of effort to break the top at 150 which has proved to be a tough resistance for such a long time and it is also a huge psychological resistance. The fact is that the support at 147.5 has also not been broken which would make me favor longs on every dip for now.

As for EJ, the weakness on EU seems to be affecting this pair a great deal and we can see that it is struggling to overcome the resistance at 132.8. But this pair has strong support at 13.25 but amongst the JPY crosses, this pair looks the weakest which makes me favor shorts on every approach of 132.5.

Thats all for now...

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

Attached is the 1H and 4H chart of GBPUSD. The 1H chart shows what could be construed as a small rounded top which is a sign of bearishness. Also, on the 4H chart, we can see a bearish pin bar, that too from a region of resistance. All this provides conflicting signals.

The trend seems to be updwards and the daily also closed in a bullish manner but the above signs show bearishness. I might be tempted for a short once the bottom of the pin bar on 4H is broken. This is at 1.4490 right now. The initial targets for a short would be 1.4950 and then 1.4900 followed by 1.4832 and then 1.4771.

On the upside, the strong resistances would be at 1.5050 which is also a previous high and hence a very strong resistance. If this is broken, then the next target would be 1.5137.

I would favor shorts atleast during the early part of the day and would be careful trading this pair due to the conflicting signals.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 1H and 4H chart of EURUSD. As can be seen, not only EU several other pairs seem to have been caught in a range over the past 5-6 hours and they do not seem to know wheere they want to go. As for EU, it is caught in a range between 1.3367 and 1.4430.

The good thing is that EU is showing a lot of strength as we had expected yesterday. Also, the daily chart shows that it ended yesterday towards its highs and also above some of the previous highs, all of which points to the fact that there is strength for some more upside.

On the upside, the first resistance that needs to be broken is 1.4430 and i believe that it will prove to be quite tough. After that, the next resistance is at 1.4470 though it would be a small one. Beyond that is a very strong resistance at 1.3550 where some previous highs exist as well and hence should prove to be quite strong.

On the downside, there should be some good support at 1.3367 and then at 1.3330 and finally good support at 1.3300.

I would favor longs today but i would be careful with them. I might just take some small longs and keep taking small profits as and when they come. Play the range.

Price Action Trade on EURUSD

It was a good day of trading....Nice down move to load up the longs and then an up move to show the strength for all to see. As expected, EU peaked towards its support at 1.3336. It was quite obvious that it had peaked too early and so a correction was due and it came during the London session. With London closed, it had low volume and hence it was easy to manipulate the price and down we went. I had a very strong feeling that the uptrend was intact until 1.3184. So, took a long at 1.3232.

Attached is the chart on 1H for EU. Watch the PA at the bottom of the swing. There was a bar with slightly high volume which almost ended as a pin bar....This shows strength and buying which has pushed the price back. Also, this is near a good support region...This is good reason for me to take a long which i took at 1.3232. Next bar, we go down but i dont panic cos i know that the uptrend is intact till 1.3184. This bar then ends in a pin bar with slightly low volume which confirms that the uptrend is intact. I stay with my longs and close it at 1.3336 for more than 100 pips profit...I am sure it will go up more but this is a resistance region and so will wait till the resistance is broken.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

Attached is the 1H chart of GBPUSD. GU has broken through the highs of last week and seems poised for more upside. It should face tough resistance at 1.4980 and +- 30 pips around this as it is around the huge psychological resistance of 1.50.

We need a clean break and close above 1.5050 for any more upside on this. If this resistance does break, then we should be seeing 1.5170 and then a clear move to 1.53.

On the downside, we should see good support at 1.4940 and then good support at 1.4893 which is also a daily support and hence should be quite strong. Then a small support at 1.4832 and then a strong support 1.4771.

I would favor longs for today

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. As predicted in my weekly outlook yesterday, EU has started the week very strongly. Right now, it is pushing against a good resistance at 1.3336. This should prove as a bit of a good resistance but considering the underlying strength in EU, it should push through.

On the upside, it should face some strong resistance at 1.3370 which should prove a bigger resistance as previous highs are located there. If it does manage to puush through, then we should see a easy ride to 1.3430 and then to 1.3550 and finally the target at 1.37. These should take a few days though.

On the downside, the supports would be at 1.3306, 1.3275 and then finally a very strong support at 1.3184. But my guess is that today should be an upday for both EU and GU.

Weekly Outlook for GBPUSD

Attached is the daily and weekly chart of GBPUSD. As can be seen from the daily chart, it closed above the resistance at 1.4893. Despite closing above resistance, this is not a guarantee that the price will go up easily. There is stiff resistance at 1.4950 and also at around 1.5000 where there are previous highs and also cos 1.5 is a huge psychological resistance.

It can be seen that price has tried to close above 1.5 several times earlier but it has found it to be difficult which shows that there is a lot of selling that needs to be overcome.

On the weekly chart, we can see that there is strong support at 1.4650..In fact, for the past several weeks, price has not gone much below 1.45 and price has basically been ranging between 1.45 and 1.5. The upcoming week could see some more ranging or if price does indeed manage to breakout on either side, it could be a huge breakout considering the fact that price has been ranging for so long.

What all this says is that, as and when price nears 1.46, it could be a good place to go long but would the price come near 1.46 ? That is anybody's guess. In the upcoming week, we could try to trade the range as long as it exists and if and when breakout happens, just jump in and enjoy the big ride.

Signal Service

Hi,
Today i am, for the first time, publicly announcing that yes, i do run a signal service. This is in response to several visitors of this blog asking me about it and how they could join the same.

I currently have 28 subscribers in it and i give out 200-300 pips worth of signals everyday. All these subscribers have got enrolled purely through word of mouth and not through any ads or fake promises. I dont need to prove my credentials to anyone and i dont need to lie to anyone as well. My credentials are there for all to see on this blog and on my thread at FF where i have kept posting to the minimum so that all the info is condensed in a few pages rather than wasting pages to post "155, here we come or 130, here we come" for every 100 pip move.

Of course, the question would arise on why i need to run a signal service when i can make 200-300 pips a day myself. The reasons are several :

1. I have been asked by so many people to have a signal service so that they can benefit.

2. Due to my leverage restrictions, i cannot take all the trades myself which means that several trades go waste which, if given to others, would have proved useful.

3. I hate to see so many nice trades going waste when so many others could have taken it. Of course, i could update it live somewhere but by the time i do it, its too late. I tried to use twitter but being in India, it does not accept my mobile number. Also, with no monetary incentive, the task of updating all my trades as and when they occur was proving to be highly tedious.

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I am ready to take in more subscribers and i also will give a weeks worth of free live signals as a trial so that you can decide whether you want to subscribe or not. Those who are interested, please email me at kartram.77@gmail.com.

I am also planning to start a course of my style of PA trading. i am just collecting the material. Will update you guys. If anyone is interested in that, please mail me in the above mail id.

Irrespective of subscribers, this blog and the thread at FF will continue as usual..

Weekly Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the daily and the weekly chart for EURUSD. You can see from the daily chart that the price has been finding it difficult to close above the daily resistance at 1.3306 and it has failed in 2 successive attempts. But the weekly charts show that for the past 2 weeks, price has fallen down but has again closed right back up.

The fact that the price fell down and then came back up again shows that it has good strength now. Also, on the dailies, we could see that though it has failed to close above 1.3360 and this price has proved to be tough resistance, the fall has not been huge.

Normally, if indeed huge selling had been there, we should have seen price fall down by 200-300 pips and also close the week on its lows. But we have seen the price fall only about 150 pips and even then the price has come back up again.

All of the above shows that EURUSD still has lot of strength in it. So, this week, we might see this pair going up, breaking the strong resistance at 1.3360 and make an assault on the next weekly resistance at 1.37..