Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This pair has had a very good drop over the past few hours and this throws up an interesting picture now as to the future direction of this pair. So far this week, this pair had appeared highly bullish and it had threatened to finally break out of its big range of 1.38 to 1.42-1.43.

In fact, it had refused to fall down and had started to break through several resistances which showed that this pair was being highly bullish and led everyone to believe that we might finally see a break of previous highs and then move on to 1.45. But now, the situation seems to have changed totally and this pair has now broken through its strong support at 1.4160.

As you can see from the chart, this break had also been in a very long bar which tells you that this break could be a clean and true one. If the break had occurred on a small bar, then it most likely would have been a false break but the fact that it has occurred on a long bar shows that it could be a true break.

This pair has now entered into a congestion zone which extends till 1.4100 which means that the move down would be slowed down a bit. For today, i expect the price to make a small retrace to 1.4160 or 1.4180 and then continue the fall. A break of 1.4100 would accelerate the fall and then we could see the pair slowly moving down to 1.4050 and then 1.40. Back into Range !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart. This chart clearly shows how this pair has been caught in a very tight range for the past couple of days. In fact, this pair has moved about 20 pips in the past 2 hrs !! As was predicted yesterday, this pair has been tightly ranging so far.

A very important thing to note here is the fact that this pair has refused to fall even after a couple of days which is different from the scenario that existed the last few times when it reached this price. In fact, everything looks so much set up now for the next move past the tough 1.42s which has a lot of resistances in between.

It is very clear that unless 1.4160 is broken on the downside cleanly and with force, this pair will continue to move up. So, any approach to 1.4160 can be easily and safely bought until this support is broken.

For today, buying dips would be the best way to go as far as this pair is concerned. There is a couple of major news to be released today which could determine the next direction of this pair. For today, on the downside, there is support at 1.4160 and then at 1.41. On the upside, 1.42s is full of resistances and previous highs with resistances at 1.4240, 1.4275 and then 1.43. Buy Dips !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. As was expected, this pair has broken through some major resistances over the last couple of days and is now taking some rest. It has had some minor retracement yesterday and it is now taking some rest contemplating the next direction.

This pair has indeed broken through the same major resistances sometime back as well. The major difference between then and now is the fact that this break has been followed by a slowdown and a small retracement only whereas the previous breaks have been followed by immediate selling and immediately this pair has done down.

The fact that this pair has not immediately fallen down and is now resting close to its support shows that maybe, just maybe, this pair has enough strength now to break through the resistances in 1.42s. We will have to wait and see. We will know it this week.

On the upside, as usual, the resistances exist at 1.42 and 1.4260 and a clean break of 1.4260 will open up 1.45 to 1.46. On the downside, we have strong support at 1.4160 and then at 1.41. For today, i expect 1.4160 to hold up the price and i do not see price falling below that. You can go long on any approach to 1.4160. Any break of 1.4160 can be shorted but we should be looking for break of 1.4260 to add to our longs.

Take Those Losses !!

One of the toughest thing to do for any trader, novice or professional is to accept losses and take the losses. Lot of the time, we have this tendency to hang on to the losses that somehow, just somehow, things would turn around and we can then get out at break even. And to further add fuel to the fire, occasionally, we find that after holding even after huge losses, sometimes the trade turns around and it comes back to our price and helps us get out at break even. Or most of the time, what happens is that we get out of a trade with huge losses only to see the price turn around and come right back to our price making us feel 'if only i had held for just 50 more pips !!'...sigh....

Though, on the face of it, the above 2 scenarious point to the situation where you might feel that it is good to hold on to losing trades, lets consider these points. Usually, when we hold on to losing trades, it most probably means that our system and strategy has gone for a toss, our money management is all screwed up and in effect, we are no longer in control of the trade. We allow our drawdown to pile up, the loss is way more than the stop loss. What this does is that it stops us taking other trades, either because we dont have the money due to large drawdown or we are simply too focussed on getting out of the losing trade that we dont see obvious setups or we are too scared that we might increase our losses by taking more trades and hence refrain from taking trades.

So, the losing trade not only makes us lose a lot of money but also stops us taking trades which could have given us some easy money. We could have simply cut our losses at say, 100 pips or so and easily made that amount by taking 2-3 good trades in a couple of days rather than hold on to the drawdown, lose good trades and finally lose on this trade as well.

Then comes the emotional content where we sit on the computer for long hours hoping and praying that things would somehow turn around increasing the pressure on us and making us a nervous wreck. Believe me, its not worth it. Trading is meant to be simple, easy and straightforward if you do it the right way. Just stick to your system that works, no matter what, take losses, as they are a integral part of trading and that will go a great way in making you a much better trader and a successful one at that. It saves you a lot of money and a lot of tension if you take your losses. It might sound a bit contradictory but try it...It Works !!

Need Help with Data

As you all might be knowing, we are in the process of automating our system for various pairs. For this, we need forex historical End Of Day Data. So, if anyone has lot of forex data or can let us know where we can find lot of forex data (atleast 25-30 yrs), please do let us know. Your help would be greatly appreciated and would also go a long way in making our system a great success as it is proving to be. Please email me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

The EURUSD pair is entering crucial territory now. It has been showing some very good strength over the last week and it now threatens a breakout from its long time range of 1.38 to 1.42. Attached is the 4H chart for EU where the strength of this pair over the last few bars is obvious for everyone to see.

This pair has refused to fall down over the last few days and has since been moving higher and higher. For now, you can see that the last bar has broken a major resistance at 1.4160. But , in my charts, the last 4H bar is just 30 mins old and so i would not take this as a true break atleast for the next hour or so.

If the price does stay above 1.4160, then this is a confirmed break but still this pair is up against some huge resistance at 1.42 and then around 1.4250 where a previous high exists. This is why this pair is at a crucial territory. Entering longs at this price may not be a great idea. We need to either wait for a retrace or wait for the price to break 1.4250 in a clean manner to go long.

On the downside, the support exists at 1.4160, 1.41 and then 1.4040. On the upside, there is strong resistance at 1.42 and 1.4250. A break of 1.4250 should open up 1.45.

For today, i dont have any specific bias. I will be looking to buy dips but i would be looking for small profits on my longs unless and until 1.4250 is cleanly broken. In other words, the bias is still to the upside but we need 1.4250 to be taken out for us to enter longs with confidence...