Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As can be seen, EU has continued merrily with its ranging for the whole day yesterday. This is something that was expected as there is so much of news today. We should be expecting a breakout today and considering the strength of EU so far, i believe that EU will breakout on the upside today.

On the upside, the targets would be 1.3336 and if this is broken , then there will be a small resistance at yesterday's high at around 1.3370. If this is broken, then there should be a major resistance at 1.3428 which has seen previous highs and hence should be a strong resistance. A break of this should open up 1.36 and then 1.37.

On the downside the supports will be at 1.3275, then yesterdays low at 1.3214 and then a major support at 1.3184. I dont expect this support to be broken but if it does get broken, then we should be looking at 1.31 and 1.3050.

Updates on GBPJPY and future direction

Attached is the 1H chart of GJ. Today morning, we saw GJ going down nicely to its big support at 146.88. The pace with which the move was made and that too during the Asian session gave us the indication that something was not right with the move down.

Usually, in any sudden move up or down, we need look out for pin bars which tell us that there is a change of the price move. As can be seen in the chart, a bullish pin bar at the swing low was an indication that price would reverse and thats what it did.

You can also see that at every swing point, the price bars clearly tell you the change the direction. All you need to do is watch the bars and take the trade accordingly. Any bar finishing near its middle after piercing through a support or resistance shows change in the direction of price movement and thats what you can clearly see in all the bars where there was a reversal.

The fact that there was no more down movement after the Asian session and the fact that the price has recovered somewhat shows that there is still strength left in GJ and it looks good for more. Long on dips is the way to go.

Updates on Signal Service

Till now, I have 26 people who have signed up for the free trial so far. The free trial should start after i come back from my vacation. It should start either on May 13 or 14 and i will be giving free signals for 5 trading days.

I am also working on giving some good swing trades which would be useful for those who cannot be logged on for the whole day. Of course, these swing trades would be worth 500 pips a week on an average. Lets see how things go.

For those who have not signed up yet, the trial is still open till May 12 and they can mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com anytime before that so that we can set things up.

On Vacation

Hi,
I will be on vacation from tomorrow (Thursday, May 7). Tomorrow, I will be making the usual morning update on this blog and then i would leave towards the evening. So, there will be no updates on this blog on May 8, 9, 10 and 11 and i will be back with the usual updates on May 12. It looks like a very busy and crazy week and so enjoy your trading !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart of EURUSD. As can be seen, there has been a big breakdown in the price and it has now come out of the range that it was in yesterday. The USD seems to have gained in strength across the board for all currency pairs.

EU has broken though support at 1.3330 and now has also broken major support at 1.3306. Unless it climbs back this support soon, we could see EU revisit its next major support which is at 1.3184.

On the downside , there is small support at 1.3275, then a strong one at 1.3245 and finally a very strong support at 1.3184 which has also been a low for some days of last week and hence should provide good support. I do not see EU going below 1.3184 today.

On the upper side, EU should face resistance at 1.3306 and then at 1.3340 and finally should move to 1.3420. I foresee some more ranging today though the range would be bigger than what it was yesterday. EU should not be falling below 1.3184 today.

Wrapup of Daily movements of Pairs

A good ranging day for all the currencies and the only breakout that we saw today was on GBPUSD. Now lets start with EURUSD. As pointed out in the morning, we had a ranging day today with 1.3428 proving to be a tough resistance to break and 1.3330 proving to be a tough support to break so far. Those who had the guts to pull the trigger on either side would have made good pips today.

I believe we might have a small breakout on the EU sometime tomorrow and the major day would of course be Thursday when the rates and statement would be released. The latest fall of EU to its lows at 1.3330 seems to be on low volume which suggests that it might move up again...

Moving on to GBPUSD, there was a small breakout which was capped by tough resistance at 1.5150 and today this pair ranged between 1.5015 and 1.5150. With a lot of news being released this week, we should see a break of this range soon and am in favor of longs though i could be wrong.

Now , moving on to the JPY crosses, these pairs also ranged for most of the day. GJ was caught in the range between 148.4 and 150 and it would indeed take a lot of effort to break the top at 150 which has proved to be a tough resistance for such a long time and it is also a huge psychological resistance. The fact is that the support at 147.5 has also not been broken which would make me favor longs on every dip for now.

As for EJ, the weakness on EU seems to be affecting this pair a great deal and we can see that it is struggling to overcome the resistance at 132.8. But this pair has strong support at 13.25 but amongst the JPY crosses, this pair looks the weakest which makes me favor shorts on every approach of 132.5.

Thats all for now...

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

Attached is the 1H and 4H chart of GBPUSD. The 1H chart shows what could be construed as a small rounded top which is a sign of bearishness. Also, on the 4H chart, we can see a bearish pin bar, that too from a region of resistance. All this provides conflicting signals.

The trend seems to be updwards and the daily also closed in a bullish manner but the above signs show bearishness. I might be tempted for a short once the bottom of the pin bar on 4H is broken. This is at 1.4490 right now. The initial targets for a short would be 1.4950 and then 1.4900 followed by 1.4832 and then 1.4771.

On the upside, the strong resistances would be at 1.5050 which is also a previous high and hence a very strong resistance. If this is broken, then the next target would be 1.5137.

I would favor shorts atleast during the early part of the day and would be careful trading this pair due to the conflicting signals.