Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD


GBPUSD has been a bit crazy over the last few days. It does not seem to be knowing where it wants to go and thats the reason for this craziness. yesterday, we saw a good dip towards its strong support at 1.4526 and then it started going back up again.

What is clear is that GU is now caught in a 150 pip range between 1.4526 and 1.4680 and unless one of these price regions break, we should be seeing more ranging.

Attached is the 1H chart of GU and we can see how it moved to its support at 1.4526 which was a previous low as well and then it started going back up. Now it has broken through its resistance at 1.4648 again and it is now acting as a small support. This price was a big SR previously but with it being broken several times either way over the past few days, it has now become quite a weak SR.

On the upside, the resistances would be at 1.4680 and then at 1.4710 and then a strong resistance at 1.4770.

On the downside, the supports are at 1.4648, a small one at 1.4587 and then a strong one at 1.4526.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD


Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. It shows the strong support at 1.3123 which has been supporting the price for the past few hours. The small bars which bounced off the support should have shown that there was some accumulation taking place. On cue, EU has moved up and is at a resistance right now as it is close to one of the highs. It should break through 1.3160 for more upside.

On the upside, 1.3160 should be first resistance and if that is broken, then there should be another strong resistance at 1.3185. This price region should be a strong resistance as it is a SR at higher TFs as well. If and when this is broken, then the next upside target should be 1.3250 which should be achieved easily if 1.3185 is broken.

On the downside, the first target would be 1.3123 which should serve as a very strong support followed by another strong support at 1.3060.

I believe that EU will continue its upward move after some retracement towards support at 1.3123.

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Daily Outlook for EURJPY


Attached is the 1H chart of EURJPY which again shows a beautiful setup which could have been taken in the morning of today. As you can, there was a period of 6-7 hrs which had very small bars but none of those bars broke the support at 126.56. The high during that period was 126.85. So, during any of those hours, if we had taken a long with a SL below 126.55, then that trade would have been worth atleast 70 pips.

The short bars show either accumulation or distribution taking place and there was going to be an impending breakout. Anyway, EURJPY seems very strong now and it has broken its resistance at 127.3 and looks good for more. There would be some correction / retracement as the London session approaches and the upside target would be 128.

On the downside, there should be very strong support at 126.55 and then at 125.8.

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Simple Price Action Trade on GBPJPY


Here is another beautiful PA trade that is so easy to spot and so easy to trade. You can trade cool with little pressure on yourself with such trades... Attached is the 1H chart of GJ...A nice clean almost pin bar at the high...add to it there is a previous high around the same price...Look at the volume...it is very high but the bar does not finish at the high inspite of the high volume.

All the above are clear indication that it is going to go down. All that you have to do is to take a short with a SL at the high. Very low risk with high reward potential. Now support has been broken and coming down and has yielded 30 pips so far. A similar setup can be seen in the GU chart as well which further corroborates our bearish outlook.

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Monday, April 27, 2009

Daily Outlook for EURJPY


Attached is a daily chart of EURJPY. Yesterday, it came down crashing due to the weakness in the JPY crosses and also the large weakness in the euro. But as you can see from the daily chart, there is big support at 125.6 and it will take a big effort to break this support.

If this support does get broken, then we should move down to 125 which is again a very big support even on larger TFs. If this support also does get broken, which i doubt it will, then we should start moving towards 122. This is a daily chart and so things will take a few days to happen.

On the upside, there should be resistance at 126.2 and then at 127. Finally, there should be strong resistance at 128. I expect ranging between 125 and 128 for a few days.

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Daily Outlook for GBPUSD


Attached is a 1H chart of GBPUSD. As can be seen from the chart, GU had a very nice recovery from its lows at 1.4520 and then made a big recovery towards 1.47. What can also be noticed is that the move towards 1.47 had lesser and lesser volume with very little volume on the highs. This clearly shows that buyers were not interested in higher prices. Atleast not yet. So, the fact that the high bar closed in its middle with low volume was confirmation that this pair was coming down from 1.47.

Now, the price is hovering around 1.46 and this has some good support here. I do not see a breakdown of this support atleast until the London session opens. There is also very good support at yesterdays low of 1.4526 and until this is broken, there may not be any more downside. If this support does get broken, it could go down to 1.4470 and then to 1.44.

On the upside, the targets are 1.4648 which is a huge resistance and then yesterdays high of 1.47.

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Daily Outlook for EURUSD


As pointed out yesterday in my article, EURUSD had a huge bearish breakdown. It broke down through some major supports with 1.3184 proving to be a strong support turned resistance. Today, 1.3060 should be a strong resistance and 1.2940 should turn out to be a strong support.

By the look of things, we should see a further move down towards 1.2940 and i do not believe that this support will be broken today. Hence, we might see a bit of ranging today with 1.29 as support.

Attached is a daily chart of EU where it shows that 1.29 had served as a good place of support with a lot of buying.

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