Monday, April 27, 2009

GBPJPY on a 5M Chart


Attached is the 5M chart of GBPJPY with 1H MM levels drawn on it. This chart has been presented to show a peculiar type of PA called pin bars. This shows you how, using pin bars even on a 5M chart, you could make a lot of pips based on price action and just within a few hours of time.

In the attached chart, see the number of both bearish and bullish pin bars and just see how many pips you could have made. With the weakness in the JPY crosses, you would of course prefer to take the bearish pin bars rather than the bullish ones. All you need to do is take the trade with the SL just above or below the pin bars which gives you a very low risk. Also, pin bars in new highs or previous highs have a higher probability of success. Just simple, low risk trading.

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Intraday Outlook on EURUSD


As pointed out in my article today morning, EURUSD seems very weak today and 1.3184 has proved to be a very strong resistance which has been holding up right through the day. Today has been a bit of a surprise with such slow movements through the day.

Anyway, EURUSD is now threatening to break the support at 1.3120 and if it does, it should go to around 1.3060 and i dont see it going down much further than that with not much news in today.

Any retracement towards 1.3180 is a good opportunity for shorting and i have taken 3 shorts at various times today on this pair for 28, 28 and 29 pips...

Attached is the hourly chart showing the MM levels and also the bearish pin bar on approach to 1.3180 which shows the selling pressure at that level.

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Sunday, April 26, 2009

Daily Outlook for EURUSD


Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As can be seen, it has broken through strong support at 1.3184. This price is support on the higher TFs as well and hence a break of this suggests that EU is likely to go down further. The chart also shows a rounded top which is again a confirmation of the price going down.

The downside targets woukd be 1.3120 and 1.3060. I doubt whether it will go higher but the open of the Euro session might see a bounce before the fall resumes again. On the upside, it should face resistance at 1.3184 and then at 1.3250.

Let see !!

Daily Outlook for GBPJPY


Now lets move on to the beast GBPJPY. It has opened a bit bearish today but as pointed out in one of my earlier articles, it still has strong support all the way from 140.5 to 141.5. But each dip into this support region dries up more and more buyers who sit in this region to support the price. So, GJ needs to break out upwards sooner else it will start to fall.

As seen from the hourly chart, the support are at 141.4 and 140.6. On the upside 142, 143.3 and then 144. GJ has been ranging between 140.5 and 144 for a few days and hence a breakout should come soon and this breakout should be big..

Outlook for GBPCHF


Ok then. Lets get back to the trading now. First, lets pick up on the pair which is quite interesting usually and is at a crucial position right now. Attached is a daily chart of GBPCHF and as you can see, it has strong support at 1.6600. It is at 1.67 currently and looking at things, i believe that the support should hold for now.

If the support does manage to break, it should go to atleast 1.63 and then on to 1.61. But i really do anticipate a bounce from this price and this bounce should take it to atleast 1.6850.

With lot of news coming in, it should be an interesting week !!

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Relaxing while trading !!

I thought i would write up the article on a weekend as it is on a topic which everyone is supposed to be doing over the weekend i.e. Relax !! This might seem a very trivial and boring topic to most but as everyone knows, more than the charts, the technical stuff etc. , it is the trading psychology that matters. The mind is the one that matters during trading. So it is very important to have the mind well rested and ready.

I have seen many traders and have experienced it first hand as well that unless your mind is free and well rested, you simply cannot make the right trading decisions. Traders should not be like hackers where they sit in small , dim lit rooms trading 16-18 hrs a day, having their food at the computer table, munching on snacks, colas, juice, all at their computer table. We have to understand that there is life beyond trading. We trade and we earn money to enjoy life. Not only do we need to enjoy life, we need to use trading and the money earned from that to make life enjoyable for people around us like our friends, family etc. So in such a case, what is the point in spending 16-18 hrs a day at the computer table, talking very less to friends and family, not spending enough time with them and making them unhappy and dissatisfied ? If the people around you are not happy, what is the point in earning thousands of dollars per week through trading ?

So, you need to relax, you need to have a social life and you need to spend time for yourself and also for friends and family. I see traders spending a large part of their weekend as well trying to read more and more, come up with strategies, studying charts for several hours etc.

The idea is to keep things simple. Trading is simple. We are the ones who make it complicated. Once you have understood price action and how and why price moves, then there is no need to keep working on systems, keep studying charts all the time. Price action is the only thing that works always. So, if you have understood price action and if you have imbibed it and this, along with good money management, along with a clear mind, should ensure that you trade well and earn well.

And be clear in your mind about your targets. Be clear on how much you want to earn per day and where you want to be six or 12 mnths down the line. Unless you have a target, you tend to over trade and you lose control. The logic is simple, the more trades you make, the more likely that you are going to make mistakes. As i keep repeating , 50 pips a day on a consistent basis should give you a very good income within a year even if you start with just $500. This translates to 250 pips a week for swing traders. For scalpers, 50 pips can be easily achieved with just 2 trades a day and within 2-3 hrs. For swing traders, 250 pips a week can be made in 2-3 trades in a week. That does not stop you from trading more or making more but what i am trying to say is that dont force yourself to trade more and more giving up most of your free time. Take trades as they come. Dont go in search of trades. Good trades will jump our of the charts for you. You need not go in search of trades with a lens. If you have good small targets and learn to relax and condition your mind, you will trade in a relaxed manner and without pressure and this is a sure way to success...