Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Daily Outlook for EURUSD


Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. As expected, it made a good upmove yesterday but still it was not able to break the strong upper resistance at around 1.3672. Since the failure at 1.3672, it has retraced back and is no consolidating at lower levels.

There is an important news coming up later in the day which is the FOMC meeting minutes which is usually a big market mover. I believe that market would be waiting for the news during the day and hence i would not bet on any major moves before that. In fact, i would expect some more retraement before the news.

On the downside, there is strong support at 1.3611 and then at 1.3550 and i do not expect the price to fall much below these 2 support levels. We should see a lot of ranging between 1.3550 and 1.3672 during the course of the day.

On the upside, as pointed out, there should be strong resistance at around 1.3672 and i do not expect this to be broken during the early part of the day.

As for the overall direction for the day, there should be ranging and consolidation between 1.3550 and 1.3672. I would try and play the range between the SRs at 1.3550, 1.3611 and 1.3672 and breakout on either side of 1.3550 or 1.3672 would make me take the trade in that direction for a big ride. I would like to stick my neck out and say that today could be the day when 1.3672 is broken and we could see a large upside.

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