What has been threatening right from the morning has become true towards the end of the day. One of the major and best signs of a trend change (bull from a bear in this case) is the stalling of price. Right from today morning, we could see that in the major currencies, the price refused to fall below the low of yesterday. The price did threaten and it did whipsaw up and down but it did not break the lows of yesterday in many of the currencies. This showed that something was in the works behind the scenes.
Some of the major currencies broke through major resistances. GJ broke through 143.75 while GU broke through 1.4648. It remains to be seen whether this break of the resistance will hold good. If the price of these currencies falls back below the support by the end of the day then we should be seeing a continuation of the fall tomorrow as well. If it closes above, then we should see a continuation of the upmove tomorrow.
But for scalpers like me, an upmove of more than 200 pips is more than enough and can be construed as a minor trend change even if it continues falling down tomorrow.
We need to be watching the price carefully for the rest of the day and see the PA and the close. We need to analyse the volume as well and see which direction the big boys are and see whether the break of resistance holds.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
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Hi Karthik
ReplyDeleteHow do you analyse volume on forex?
well thats a long story and there is a whole field of study on that...it cannot be explained in a few lines...
ReplyDeleteCOT data is the only way !
ReplyDelete