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Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. As is evident, this pair has fallen a lot over the past few days. It did manage to make new highs recently but from that point, it has all been downhill for this pair and yesterday was no different.

But an interesting thing to note here is the fact that we can now see a bullish pin bar on this chart for this pair. This pin bar is off a good support and also after a nice move and we can also see that the next 4H bar has broken the top of the bullish pin bar. Just to complement this, we have a bearish pin bar on the 4H charts on USDCAD.

All this point to some recovery in the price of this pair and by the look of things, i believe that this pair could go all the way upto 1.4220. There is a huge resistance at this price and so i would expect the recovery to stop at this point but this should be very interesting to watch.

A break of the low of the bullish pin bar should nullify this scenario. For today, on the downside, the supports are at 1.4144, 1.4130 and 1.41. A break of 1.41 should cause this pair to go down to 1.4 and then 1.39. On the upside, we should see the pair face strong resistance at 1.42 and then 1.4220 and a break of this price should lead to 1.4250.

For today, i expect this pair to range between 1.4150 and 1.4250.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Just a glance at the chart tells you that this pair has been ranging for the past couple of days. What is scary though is the fact that the range has been so tight. This tells you that a breakout is around the corner and if and when the breakout comes, it is going to be fast, quick and nasty.

This is a period of consolidation and the best thing to do during this consolidation is to have patience and wait for the price to reach a support or a resistance and then trade accordingly. For eg., all that you need to do is wait for the price to reach around 1.4387 and then take a long and you can exit at around 1.4420. Take a short there again and exit around 1.4390. Keep playing this range and you could have very easily made 80-100 pips on each of these 2 days. But the key here is the wait cos you can easily get impatient and take the wrong entry at the wrong price and this market would then kill you and if it happens twice, next time, you are simply too scared to take the trade even though it might be the right trade at the right price. This is what the market can do to your brain.

Anyway, today would be crucial with a lot of news coming in and i would expect this range to be broken either today or atleast by tomorrow. As i have been saying over the past couple of days, on the upside, the resistance is at 1.4440 and break of this will lead to 1.45 and then 1.46. On the downside, there is support at 1.4380, 1.4350 and then 1.43. Play the range for now and wait for a breakout to take a lot of pips..

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This is an interesting chart which shows consolidation. Does this consolidation point to accumulation or distribution? Only time will tell. This pair did not move much for the whole of yesterday which was to be expected after the breakout on the day before. Right now, this pair is ranging with a small range and between 1.4380 and 1.4440.

The above range needs to be broken for us to take a specific direction. If possible, we have to try to trade this range or else we need to be staying aside, as far as this pair is concerned, and try and take a trade in the right direction once the range is broken.

This will be a very difficult as well as interesting week with so much of news being released throughout the course of this week. This is how it is during the first week of every month and things begin to stabilise in the other weeks. This month would be especially volatile as we are in recession and people are looking for bits and pieces of news to either confirm the recession or to confirm that we are coming out of it. So, news in either direction would cause investors to move in that direction immediately and this leads to the additional volatility this month.

As for today, on the upside, we have strong resistance at 1.4440. If this is broken, we should see this pair move on to 1.45 and then 1.46. On the downside, we have strong support at 1.4380. If this is broken, we should see the pair move down to 1.4350 and then 1.43. I expect the range to be broken to the upside today but i could be wrong !! The key is not to outguess the market but just do what the market tells you.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This pair, along with other associated pairs, finally had a breakout after so much of ranging over the past many many weeks. The fact that this breakout has come after so many weeks of ranging shows that this pair could go up even further in the short term.

The most surprising thing about yesterdays move has been that the moves have come without even a semblance of any retrace at all. Normally, big moves are followed by some good retraces to about 50% of the entire move but we did not have any retrace of the move yet. This could be a signal of the strength of the move.

Today, on the upside, the next major resistance is at 1.4440. If this major resistance is broken, i dont see anything that is going to stop this pair from reaching 1.46. On the downside, this pair has support at 1.44 and then at 1.4350 and then 1.43.

For today, i would expect some more upside but at a lesser pace as compared to yesterday.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a lot of ranging and the range was very tight as well making it very difficult to trade. But a curious thing happened at the start of the US session. There was a very quick dip and then the price came right back up within the hour.

Knowing that the overall trend was up, this was a very clear indication that this pair was going up. The big boys pushed the price down to make small panicky traders to sell off whatever they had in this pair so that they could buy it and get ready for the move up. The fact that the price came right back up within the hour showed that this pair had a lot of strength left in it.

For today, this pair has already broken through its major resistance at 1.4090 which was capping it the whole of yesterday. So, i would expect this pair to move up further atleast until the next major resistance at 1.4130.

For today, i would expect this to be a ranging day with bias to the upside. As it has been for the past 2 mnths, buy dips and you should not fail in this pair. On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4130, 1.4160 and then at 1.42. On the downside, the supports are at 1.3990 and then 1.3950 and i dont expect this pair to fall much below this.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a huge fall which shows that the ranging which we saw in the high 1.42s was distribution rather than anything else. As can be seen from the chart, this pair moved down a lot and has moved down through several strong supports and has now bounced off support at around 1.40.

Now this presents a very tricky situation for us as it has become difficult to predict the direction. The normal assumption would be that this pair would continue in the range in which it has been for the past 2-3 months and so will continue to range between 1.38 and 1.43, which is what i believe is going to happen.

For today, i would expect a retrace for the big fall down and so i would expect this pair to move to around 1.41 or slightly higher and then have a small move down again. In other words, i would expect this pair to range again.

For today, on the downside, there is support at 1.40 and if this support is broken, then we can see the pair move down to 1.3950 and then 1.39 where a very strong support exists. On the upside, there is resistance at 1.4060 and then a strong one at 1.4120. I would expect more ranging today.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, i had mentioned that a lot of pairs were moving in unison and looking to break out of long term resistances and supports. 3-4 hours after writing that article, a curious thing happened. Many pairs did manage a small break through but after a couple of hours they fell back into the range. This can be clearly seen in the attached chart where there is a break through resistance but the close of the bar was again within the range.

The same curious thing happened with USDCAD as well. This was enough sign that the break through was false and also enough sign that it was a good time to short, which we did and we got 122 pips out of the EU short.

Now, again, we are back into the range and this fall down has been a nice retrace. Since the fall yesterday, there has been a nice bounce from the support area at around 1.4140 and now we are in the middle with this pair thinking what to do next. I believe that this range would continue today and what i have been saying for the past week or so continues today as well, buy dips. This retracement has provided a nice opportunity to buy this pair.

For today, on the downside, there is strong support at around 1.4150. Any hard break of this price would lead to 1.41 and then 1.4060. On the upside, there are resistances at 1.42 and then at 1.4250 and then 1.4290. Play this range with bias to the upside. Any break of 1.43 should be a sure sign to go long or add to longs. Any break of 1.4060 would be a sign to short.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This pair now seems to have got very interesting. The bounces have become higher and higher. This is a very important point to note. Previously, when there were llots of ranging, this pair was bouncing between 1.38 and 1.40. Then , after a few weeks, the bounces happened between 1.4 and 1.42. But lately, we can see that this pair has not gone below 1.4160.

All this shows that this pair is having higher bounces and getting ready to break upwards. We can also see that USDCAD and USDCHF are about to break through long pending supports and we can also see that GU also has started approaching the top of its range. Pairs usually move in unison and by the looks of it, all the pairs now seem to be setting up to move through their very strong supports and resistances.

I have been advising to buy dips on this pair and the same advice holds good today as well. If we do see a break of the resistance at around 1.43, wait to confirm the break and go long. Any approach to 1.42 would also be a good opportunity to go long.

The supports for today exist at 1.4221, 1.4160 and then at 1.41. The resistances for today exist at 1.4280, 1.4330 and then at 1.4360. I guess we are setting up for a move to 1.45 and then to 1.46.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart of EURUSD. This pair continues to have the same old story of ranging, ranging and more ranging, the only difference being that now, for the past week or so, the ranging has been at higher prices and also the range has started to become smaller and smaller.

This pair has simply refused to fall much below 1.4150 which shows that there is a lot of underlying strength. It is fascinating to watch this pair range so much though i do understand that this could be a nightmare for swing traders.

Unless 1.4150 is cleanly broken and the price continues to stay below that for a couple of hours atleast, i will continue to be bullish on this pair and will continue to buy dips. Any price movement towards 1.4150 should be an ideal opportunity to buy and any move below 1.4150 should be the trigger for us to reverse and go short.

For today, i expect some more ranging with 1.4150 serving as very good and strong support and resistances at 1.4250 and 1.43. It would be interesting to see if this range is broken this week.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This pair has had a very good drop over the past few hours and this throws up an interesting picture now as to the future direction of this pair. So far this week, this pair had appeared highly bullish and it had threatened to finally break out of its big range of 1.38 to 1.42-1.43.

In fact, it had refused to fall down and had started to break through several resistances which showed that this pair was being highly bullish and led everyone to believe that we might finally see a break of previous highs and then move on to 1.45. But now, the situation seems to have changed totally and this pair has now broken through its strong support at 1.4160.

As you can see from the chart, this break had also been in a very long bar which tells you that this break could be a clean and true one. If the break had occurred on a small bar, then it most likely would have been a false break but the fact that it has occurred on a long bar shows that it could be a true break.

This pair has now entered into a congestion zone which extends till 1.4100 which means that the move down would be slowed down a bit. For today, i expect the price to make a small retrace to 1.4160 or 1.4180 and then continue the fall. A break of 1.4100 would accelerate the fall and then we could see the pair slowly moving down to 1.4050 and then 1.40. Back into Range !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart. This chart clearly shows how this pair has been caught in a very tight range for the past couple of days. In fact, this pair has moved about 20 pips in the past 2 hrs !! As was predicted yesterday, this pair has been tightly ranging so far.

A very important thing to note here is the fact that this pair has refused to fall even after a couple of days which is different from the scenario that existed the last few times when it reached this price. In fact, everything looks so much set up now for the next move past the tough 1.42s which has a lot of resistances in between.

It is very clear that unless 1.4160 is broken on the downside cleanly and with force, this pair will continue to move up. So, any approach to 1.4160 can be easily and safely bought until this support is broken.

For today, buying dips would be the best way to go as far as this pair is concerned. There is a couple of major news to be released today which could determine the next direction of this pair. For today, on the downside, there is support at 1.4160 and then at 1.41. On the upside, 1.42s is full of resistances and previous highs with resistances at 1.4240, 1.4275 and then 1.43. Buy Dips !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. As was expected, this pair has broken through some major resistances over the last couple of days and is now taking some rest. It has had some minor retracement yesterday and it is now taking some rest contemplating the next direction.

This pair has indeed broken through the same major resistances sometime back as well. The major difference between then and now is the fact that this break has been followed by a slowdown and a small retracement only whereas the previous breaks have been followed by immediate selling and immediately this pair has done down.

The fact that this pair has not immediately fallen down and is now resting close to its support shows that maybe, just maybe, this pair has enough strength now to break through the resistances in 1.42s. We will have to wait and see. We will know it this week.

On the upside, as usual, the resistances exist at 1.42 and 1.4260 and a clean break of 1.4260 will open up 1.45 to 1.46. On the downside, we have strong support at 1.4160 and then at 1.41. For today, i expect 1.4160 to hold up the price and i do not see price falling below that. You can go long on any approach to 1.4160. Any break of 1.4160 can be shorted but we should be looking for break of 1.4260 to add to our longs.

Take Those Losses !!

One of the toughest thing to do for any trader, novice or professional is to accept losses and take the losses. Lot of the time, we have this tendency to hang on to the losses that somehow, just somehow, things would turn around and we can then get out at break even. And to further add fuel to the fire, occasionally, we find that after holding even after huge losses, sometimes the trade turns around and it comes back to our price and helps us get out at break even. Or most of the time, what happens is that we get out of a trade with huge losses only to see the price turn around and come right back to our price making us feel 'if only i had held for just 50 more pips !!'...sigh....

Though, on the face of it, the above 2 scenarious point to the situation where you might feel that it is good to hold on to losing trades, lets consider these points. Usually, when we hold on to losing trades, it most probably means that our system and strategy has gone for a toss, our money management is all screwed up and in effect, we are no longer in control of the trade. We allow our drawdown to pile up, the loss is way more than the stop loss. What this does is that it stops us taking other trades, either because we dont have the money due to large drawdown or we are simply too focussed on getting out of the losing trade that we dont see obvious setups or we are too scared that we might increase our losses by taking more trades and hence refrain from taking trades.

So, the losing trade not only makes us lose a lot of money but also stops us taking trades which could have given us some easy money. We could have simply cut our losses at say, 100 pips or so and easily made that amount by taking 2-3 good trades in a couple of days rather than hold on to the drawdown, lose good trades and finally lose on this trade as well.

Then comes the emotional content where we sit on the computer for long hours hoping and praying that things would somehow turn around increasing the pressure on us and making us a nervous wreck. Believe me, its not worth it. Trading is meant to be simple, easy and straightforward if you do it the right way. Just stick to your system that works, no matter what, take losses, as they are a integral part of trading and that will go a great way in making you a much better trader and a successful one at that. It saves you a lot of money and a lot of tension if you take your losses. It might sound a bit contradictory but try it...It Works !!

Need Help with Data

As you all might be knowing, we are in the process of automating our system for various pairs. For this, we need forex historical End Of Day Data. So, if anyone has lot of forex data or can let us know where we can find lot of forex data (atleast 25-30 yrs), please do let us know. Your help would be greatly appreciated and would also go a long way in making our system a great success as it is proving to be. Please email me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

The EURUSD pair is entering crucial territory now. It has been showing some very good strength over the last week and it now threatens a breakout from its long time range of 1.38 to 1.42. Attached is the 4H chart for EU where the strength of this pair over the last few bars is obvious for everyone to see.

This pair has refused to fall down over the last few days and has since been moving higher and higher. For now, you can see that the last bar has broken a major resistance at 1.4160. But , in my charts, the last 4H bar is just 30 mins old and so i would not take this as a true break atleast for the next hour or so.

If the price does stay above 1.4160, then this is a confirmed break but still this pair is up against some huge resistance at 1.42 and then around 1.4250 where a previous high exists. This is why this pair is at a crucial territory. Entering longs at this price may not be a great idea. We need to either wait for a retrace or wait for the price to break 1.4250 in a clean manner to go long.

On the downside, the support exists at 1.4160, 1.41 and then 1.4040. On the upside, there is strong resistance at 1.42 and 1.4250. A break of 1.4250 should open up 1.45.

For today, i dont have any specific bias. I will be looking to buy dips but i would be looking for small profits on my longs unless and until 1.4250 is cleanly broken. In other words, the bias is still to the upside but we need 1.4250 to be taken out for us to enter longs with confidence...

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. As can be seen from the chart, yesterday, we again had a nice breakout and the high of the previous day was broken which was a good sign for the longs. The pair moved up to its next resistance at 1.4160 where a previous high exists.

The resistance proved tough for this pair and hence this pair has since retraced. Now it has come down to be close to its support at 1.4110. I would expect this pair to retrace a bit more and reach 1.4060 where a strong support exists. The fact that this pair has been making some decent progress and has been breaking some good resistances shows us that this pair still has lot of strength left in it.

For today, i would expect this pair to reach 1.4060 and i do not expect this price to be broken. If this price is indeed broken, then this pair should move down further on to 1.4010 and then 1.3950 and then on to 1.3910.

I would expect this pair to make another attempt at the high at 1.4160. The problem for this pair in moving higher is the row of strong resistances that it has on its own. It has resistances at 1.4160, 1.42 and then 1.4250 and 1.4290, all of which are very very strong resistances. This should be an interesting day.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a nice small breakout and it went upto the strong resistance at 1.4110. After that, it was faced with a lot of selling and hence this pair broke down and now it trades at around 1.4070.

An important thing to note here in this chart is the bearish pin bar on this 4H chart. It is also from a region od decent resistance which shows that this is indeed a viable pin bar and something to take note of. So today, we have to tread carefully and all longs could be in danger.

Only comforting factor in this is that the price is currently near a very strong support but unless the high of yesterday is taken out, i would expect this pair to slowly move down and again continue to be within the bigger range of 1.38 to 1.42.

For today, on the upside, we have resistance at 1.4110 and then at 1.4160 and then 1.4210. On the downside, the supports are at 1.4060, 1.4000 and then at 1.3960 and 1.3910. For today, i expect some more ranging with bias to the downside.

Updates on Signal Service

The four day break seems to have done a world of good for me. This week has been a great week so far. We have had nice good returns from very few signals which have had a very good success rate. Usually, Mondays are very tough to trade as each trader, big and small, comes in with his own intrepretation of the events over the weekend and tries to trade it that way and that makes the market highly volatile with each one pulling the market in his direction.

But this Monday, we made a killing and made more than 220 pips from just 4-5 trades. Tuesday was a bit of a slow day for the market and for me and we managed to make only about 80 pips. Yesterday was also a very good trade where we took only about 4 trades with very high success and we still ended up with more than 150 pips.

So, overall, this week has been great so far where we have made more than 450 pips over 3 days. Lets hope that the trend continue for the rest of the week as well.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As is usual nowadays, and i am tired of saying this again and again, we continued to range yesterday as well. Again, with the lack of any direction changing news, this pair was caught in a 120 pips range. It made its way upto 1.4020 and then fell down to 1.3910 and now, as i write, its back up to 1.3975.

This kind of ranging provides us a great way of taking trades and making some easy pips, as long as you use some common sense. Patience and discipline is required for forex trading under all circumstances and thats what is required now as well. Wait patiently for the pair to make its way to the top or bottom of the range and just pick trades in the right direction, with low risk and then you can make some easy pips.

For today, i expect the ranging to continue. The only major news that i can see is the FOMC meeting minutes. This can provide some volatility which might lead to the break of the 120 pip range that we have over the last 2 days but still i expect the pair to stick to the 400 pip range between 1.38 and 1.42.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4010 and then at 1.4060. On the downside, the supports are at 1.3950 and then at 1.3910. The SR regions can be easily located by seeing the charts. Just be patient and play the range.