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Hi All,
Do you guys think that it is time to restart this blog again ?

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. As is evident, this pair has fallen a lot over the past few days. It did manage to make new highs recently but from that point, it has all been downhill for this pair and yesterday was no different.

But an interesting thing to note here is the fact that we can now see a bullish pin bar on this chart for this pair. This pin bar is off a good support and also after a nice move and we can also see that the next 4H bar has broken the top of the bullish pin bar. Just to complement this, we have a bearish pin bar on the 4H charts on USDCAD.

All this point to some recovery in the price of this pair and by the look of things, i believe that this pair could go all the way upto 1.4220. There is a huge resistance at this price and so i would expect the recovery to stop at this point but this should be very interesting to watch.

A break of the low of the bullish pin bar should nullify this scenario. For today, on the downside, the supports are at 1.4144, 1.4130 and 1.41. A break of 1.41 should cause this pair to go down to 1.4 and then 1.39. On the upside, we should see the pair face strong resistance at 1.42 and then 1.4220 and a break of this price should lead to 1.4250.

For today, i expect this pair to range between 1.4150 and 1.4250.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Just a glance at the chart tells you that this pair has been ranging for the past couple of days. What is scary though is the fact that the range has been so tight. This tells you that a breakout is around the corner and if and when the breakout comes, it is going to be fast, quick and nasty.

This is a period of consolidation and the best thing to do during this consolidation is to have patience and wait for the price to reach a support or a resistance and then trade accordingly. For eg., all that you need to do is wait for the price to reach around 1.4387 and then take a long and you can exit at around 1.4420. Take a short there again and exit around 1.4390. Keep playing this range and you could have very easily made 80-100 pips on each of these 2 days. But the key here is the wait cos you can easily get impatient and take the wrong entry at the wrong price and this market would then kill you and if it happens twice, next time, you are simply too scared to take the trade even though it might be the right trade at the right price. This is what the market can do to your brain.

Anyway, today would be crucial with a lot of news coming in and i would expect this range to be broken either today or atleast by tomorrow. As i have been saying over the past couple of days, on the upside, the resistance is at 1.4440 and break of this will lead to 1.45 and then 1.46. On the downside, there is support at 1.4380, 1.4350 and then 1.43. Play the range for now and wait for a breakout to take a lot of pips..

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This is an interesting chart which shows consolidation. Does this consolidation point to accumulation or distribution? Only time will tell. This pair did not move much for the whole of yesterday which was to be expected after the breakout on the day before. Right now, this pair is ranging with a small range and between 1.4380 and 1.4440.

The above range needs to be broken for us to take a specific direction. If possible, we have to try to trade this range or else we need to be staying aside, as far as this pair is concerned, and try and take a trade in the right direction once the range is broken.

This will be a very difficult as well as interesting week with so much of news being released throughout the course of this week. This is how it is during the first week of every month and things begin to stabilise in the other weeks. This month would be especially volatile as we are in recession and people are looking for bits and pieces of news to either confirm the recession or to confirm that we are coming out of it. So, news in either direction would cause investors to move in that direction immediately and this leads to the additional volatility this month.

As for today, on the upside, we have strong resistance at 1.4440. If this is broken, we should see this pair move on to 1.45 and then 1.46. On the downside, we have strong support at 1.4380. If this is broken, we should see the pair move down to 1.4350 and then 1.43. I expect the range to be broken to the upside today but i could be wrong !! The key is not to outguess the market but just do what the market tells you.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This pair, along with other associated pairs, finally had a breakout after so much of ranging over the past many many weeks. The fact that this breakout has come after so many weeks of ranging shows that this pair could go up even further in the short term.

The most surprising thing about yesterdays move has been that the moves have come without even a semblance of any retrace at all. Normally, big moves are followed by some good retraces to about 50% of the entire move but we did not have any retrace of the move yet. This could be a signal of the strength of the move.

Today, on the upside, the next major resistance is at 1.4440. If this major resistance is broken, i dont see anything that is going to stop this pair from reaching 1.46. On the downside, this pair has support at 1.44 and then at 1.4350 and then 1.43.

For today, i would expect some more upside but at a lesser pace as compared to yesterday.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a lot of ranging and the range was very tight as well making it very difficult to trade. But a curious thing happened at the start of the US session. There was a very quick dip and then the price came right back up within the hour.

Knowing that the overall trend was up, this was a very clear indication that this pair was going up. The big boys pushed the price down to make small panicky traders to sell off whatever they had in this pair so that they could buy it and get ready for the move up. The fact that the price came right back up within the hour showed that this pair had a lot of strength left in it.

For today, this pair has already broken through its major resistance at 1.4090 which was capping it the whole of yesterday. So, i would expect this pair to move up further atleast until the next major resistance at 1.4130.

For today, i would expect this to be a ranging day with bias to the upside. As it has been for the past 2 mnths, buy dips and you should not fail in this pair. On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4130, 1.4160 and then at 1.42. On the downside, the supports are at 1.3990 and then 1.3950 and i dont expect this pair to fall much below this.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a huge fall which shows that the ranging which we saw in the high 1.42s was distribution rather than anything else. As can be seen from the chart, this pair moved down a lot and has moved down through several strong supports and has now bounced off support at around 1.40.

Now this presents a very tricky situation for us as it has become difficult to predict the direction. The normal assumption would be that this pair would continue in the range in which it has been for the past 2-3 months and so will continue to range between 1.38 and 1.43, which is what i believe is going to happen.

For today, i would expect a retrace for the big fall down and so i would expect this pair to move to around 1.41 or slightly higher and then have a small move down again. In other words, i would expect this pair to range again.

For today, on the downside, there is support at 1.40 and if this support is broken, then we can see the pair move down to 1.3950 and then 1.39 where a very strong support exists. On the upside, there is resistance at 1.4060 and then a strong one at 1.4120. I would expect more ranging today.