Trading Using Murray Maths and Price Action

Hi

2010-06-13T09:27:00.001-07:00

Hi All,
Do you guys think that it is time to restart this blog again ?

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-08-10T18:08:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. As is evident, this pair has fallen a lot over the past few days. It did manage to make new highs recently but from that point, it has all been downhill for this pair and yesterday was no different.

But an interesting thing to note here is the fact that we can now see a bullish pin bar on this chart for this pair. This pin bar is off a good support and also after a nice move and we can also see that the next 4H bar has broken the top of the bullish pin bar. Just to complement this, we have a bearish pin bar on the 4H charts on USDCAD.

All this point to some recovery in the price of this pair and by the look of things, i believe that this pair could go all the way upto 1.4220. There is a huge resistance at this price and so i would expect the recovery to stop at this point but this should be very interesting to watch.

A break of the low of the bullish pin bar should nullify this scenario. For today, on the downside, the supports are at 1.4144, 1.4130 and 1.41. A break of 1.41 should cause this pair to go down to 1.4 and then 1.39. On the upside, we should see the pair face strong resistance at 1.42 and then 1.4220 and a break of this price should lead to 1.4250.

For today, i expect this pair to range between 1.4150 and 1.4250.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-08-05T19:45:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Just a glance at the chart tells you that this pair has been ranging for the past couple of days. What is scary though is the fact that the range has been so tight. This tells you that a breakout is around the corner and if and when the breakout comes, it is going to be fast, quick and nasty.

This is a period of consolidation and the best thing to do during this consolidation is to have patience and wait for the price to reach a support or a resistance and then trade accordingly. For eg., all that you need to do is wait for the price to reach around 1.4387 and then take a long and you can exit at around 1.4420. Take a short there again and exit around 1.4390. Keep playing this range and you could have very easily made 80-100 pips on each of these 2 days. But the key here is the wait cos you can easily get impatient and take the wrong entry at the wrong price and this market would then kill you and if it happens twice, next time, you are simply too scared to take the trade even though it might be the right trade at the right price. This is what the market can do to your brain.

Anyway, today would be crucial with a lot of news coming in and i would expect this range to be broken either today or atleast by tomorrow. As i have been saying over the past couple of days, on the upside, the resistance is at 1.4440 and break of this will lead to 1.45 and then 1.46. On the downside, there is support at 1.4380, 1.4350 and then 1.43. Play the range for now and wait for a breakout to take a lot of pips..

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-08-04T19:31:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This is an interesting chart which shows consolidation. Does this consolidation point to accumulation or distribution? Only time will tell. This pair did not move much for the whole of yesterday which was to be expected after the breakout on the day before. Right now, this pair is ranging with a small range and between 1.4380 and 1.4440.

The above range needs to be broken for us to take a specific direction. If possible, we have to try to trade this range or else we need to be staying aside, as far as this pair is concerned, and try and take a trade in the right direction once the range is broken.

This will be a very difficult as well as interesting week with so much of news being released throughout the course of this week. This is how it is during the first week of every month and things begin to stabilise in the other weeks. This month would be especially volatile as we are in recession and people are looking for bits and pieces of news to either confirm the recession or to confirm that we are coming out of it. So, news in either direction would cause investors to move in that direction immediately and this leads to the additional volatility this month.

As for today, on the upside, we have strong resistance at 1.4440. If this is broken, we should see this pair move on to 1.45 and then 1.46. On the downside, we have strong support at 1.4380. If this is broken, we should see the pair move down to 1.4350 and then 1.43. I expect the range to be broken to the upside today but i could be wrong !! The key is not to outguess the market but just do what the market tells you.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-08-03T18:27:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This pair, along with other associated pairs, finally had a breakout after so much of ranging over the past many many weeks. The fact that this breakout has come after so many weeks of ranging shows that this pair could go up even further in the short term.

The most surprising thing about yesterdays move has been that the moves have come without even a semblance of any retrace at all. Normally, big moves are followed by some good retraces to about 50% of the entire move but we did not have any retrace of the move yet. This could be a signal of the strength of the move.

Today, on the upside, the next major resistance is at 1.4440. If this major resistance is broken, i dont see anything that is going to stop this pair from reaching 1.46. On the downside, this pair has support at 1.44 and then at 1.4350 and then 1.43.

For today, i would expect some more upside but at a lesser pace as compared to yesterday.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-30T18:22:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a lot of ranging and the range was very tight as well making it very difficult to trade. But a curious thing happened at the start of the US session. There was a very quick dip and then the price came right back up within the hour.

Knowing that the overall trend was up, this was a very clear indication that this pair was going up. The big boys pushed the price down to make small panicky traders to sell off whatever they had in this pair so that they could buy it and get ready for the move up. The fact that the price came right back up within the hour showed that this pair had a lot of strength left in it.

For today, this pair has already broken through its major resistance at 1.4090 which was capping it the whole of yesterday. So, i would expect this pair to move up further atleast until the next major resistance at 1.4130.

For today, i would expect this to be a ranging day with bias to the upside. As it has been for the past 2 mnths, buy dips and you should not fail in this pair. On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4130, 1.4160 and then at 1.42. On the downside, the supports are at 1.3990 and then 1.3950 and i dont expect this pair to fall much below this.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-29T18:17:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a huge fall which shows that the ranging which we saw in the high 1.42s was distribution rather than anything else. As can be seen from the chart, this pair moved down a lot and has moved down through several strong supports and has now bounced off support at around 1.40.

Now this presents a very tricky situation for us as it has become difficult to predict the direction. The normal assumption would be that this pair would continue in the range in which it has been for the past 2-3 months and so will continue to range between 1.38 and 1.43, which is what i believe is going to happen.

For today, i would expect a retrace for the big fall down and so i would expect this pair to move to around 1.41 or slightly higher and then have a small move down again. In other words, i would expect this pair to range again.

For today, on the downside, there is support at 1.40 and if this support is broken, then we can see the pair move down to 1.3950 and then 1.39 where a very strong support exists. On the upside, there is resistance at 1.4060 and then a strong one at 1.4120. I would expect more ranging today.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-28T18:18:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, i had mentioned that a lot of pairs were moving in unison and looking to break out of long term resistances and supports. 3-4 hours after writing that article, a curious thing happened. Many pairs did manage a small break through but after a couple of hours they fell back into the range. This can be clearly seen in the attached chart where there is a break through resistance but the close of the bar was again within the range.

The same curious thing happened with USDCAD as well. This was enough sign that the break through was false and also enough sign that it was a good time to short, which we did and we got 122 pips out of the EU short.

Now, again, we are back into the range and this fall down has been a nice retrace. Since the fall yesterday, there has been a nice bounce from the support area at around 1.4140 and now we are in the middle with this pair thinking what to do next. I believe that this range would continue today and what i have been saying for the past week or so continues today as well, buy dips. This retracement has provided a nice opportunity to buy this pair.

For today, on the downside, there is strong support at around 1.4150. Any hard break of this price would lead to 1.41 and then 1.4060. On the upside, there are resistances at 1.42 and then at 1.4250 and then 1.4290. Play this range with bias to the upside. Any break of 1.43 should be a sure sign to go long or add to longs. Any break of 1.4060 would be a sign to short.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-27T23:04:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This pair now seems to have got very interesting. The bounces have become higher and higher. This is a very important point to note. Previously, when there were llots of ranging, this pair was bouncing between 1.38 and 1.40. Then , after a few weeks, the bounces happened between 1.4 and 1.42. But lately, we can see that this pair has not gone below 1.4160.

All this shows that this pair is having higher bounces and getting ready to break upwards. We can also see that USDCAD and USDCHF are about to break through long pending supports and we can also see that GU also has started approaching the top of its range. Pairs usually move in unison and by the looks of it, all the pairs now seem to be setting up to move through their very strong supports and resistances.

I have been advising to buy dips on this pair and the same advice holds good today as well. If we do see a break of the resistance at around 1.43, wait to confirm the break and go long. Any approach to 1.42 would also be a good opportunity to go long.

The supports for today exist at 1.4221, 1.4160 and then at 1.41. The resistances for today exist at 1.4280, 1.4330 and then at 1.4360. I guess we are setting up for a move to 1.45 and then to 1.46.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-26T18:47:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart of EURUSD. This pair continues to have the same old story of ranging, ranging and more ranging, the only difference being that now, for the past week or so, the ranging has been at higher prices and also the range has started to become smaller and smaller.

This pair has simply refused to fall much below 1.4150 which shows that there is a lot of underlying strength. It is fascinating to watch this pair range so much though i do understand that this could be a nightmare for swing traders.

Unless 1.4150 is cleanly broken and the price continues to stay below that for a couple of hours atleast, i will continue to be bullish on this pair and will continue to buy dips. Any price movement towards 1.4150 should be an ideal opportunity to buy and any move below 1.4150 should be the trigger for us to reverse and go short.

For today, i expect some more ranging with 1.4150 serving as very good and strong support and resistances at 1.4250 and 1.43. It would be interesting to see if this range is broken this week.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-23T17:58:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. This pair has had a very good drop over the past few hours and this throws up an interesting picture now as to the future direction of this pair. So far this week, this pair had appeared highly bullish and it had threatened to finally break out of its big range of 1.38 to 1.42-1.43.

In fact, it had refused to fall down and had started to break through several resistances which showed that this pair was being highly bullish and led everyone to believe that we might finally see a break of previous highs and then move on to 1.45. But now, the situation seems to have changed totally and this pair has now broken through its strong support at 1.4160.

As you can see from the chart, this break had also been in a very long bar which tells you that this break could be a clean and true one. If the break had occurred on a small bar, then it most likely would have been a false break but the fact that it has occurred on a long bar shows that it could be a true break.

This pair has now entered into a congestion zone which extends till 1.4100 which means that the move down would be slowed down a bit. For today, i expect the price to make a small retrace to 1.4160 or 1.4180 and then continue the fall. A break of 1.4100 would accelerate the fall and then we could see the pair slowly moving down to 1.4050 and then 1.40. Back into Range !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-22T20:32:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart. This chart clearly shows how this pair has been caught in a very tight range for the past couple of days. In fact, this pair has moved about 20 pips in the past 2 hrs !! As was predicted yesterday, this pair has been tightly ranging so far.

A very important thing to note here is the fact that this pair has refused to fall even after a couple of days which is different from the scenario that existed the last few times when it reached this price. In fact, everything looks so much set up now for the next move past the tough 1.42s which has a lot of resistances in between.

It is very clear that unless 1.4160 is broken on the downside cleanly and with force, this pair will continue to move up. So, any approach to 1.4160 can be easily and safely bought until this support is broken.

For today, buying dips would be the best way to go as far as this pair is concerned. There is a couple of major news to be released today which could determine the next direction of this pair. For today, on the downside, there is support at 1.4160 and then at 1.41. On the upside, 1.42s is full of resistances and previous highs with resistances at 1.4240, 1.4275 and then 1.43. Buy Dips !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-21T18:45:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. As was expected, this pair has broken through some major resistances over the last couple of days and is now taking some rest. It has had some minor retracement yesterday and it is now taking some rest contemplating the next direction.

This pair has indeed broken through the same major resistances sometime back as well. The major difference between then and now is the fact that this break has been followed by a slowdown and a small retracement only whereas the previous breaks have been followed by immediate selling and immediately this pair has done down.

The fact that this pair has not immediately fallen down and is now resting close to its support shows that maybe, just maybe, this pair has enough strength now to break through the resistances in 1.42s. We will have to wait and see. We will know it this week.

On the upside, as usual, the resistances exist at 1.42 and 1.4260 and a clean break of 1.4260 will open up 1.45 to 1.46. On the downside, we have strong support at 1.4160 and then at 1.41. For today, i expect 1.4160 to hold up the price and i do not see price falling below that. You can go long on any approach to 1.4160. Any break of 1.4160 can be shorted but we should be looking for break of 1.4260 to add to our longs.

Take Those Losses !!

2009-07-20T21:54:00.000-07:00

One of the toughest thing to do for any trader, novice or professional is to accept losses and take the losses. Lot of the time, we have this tendency to hang on to the losses that somehow, just somehow, things would turn around and we can then get out at break even. And to further add fuel to the fire, occasionally, we find that after holding even after huge losses, sometimes the trade turns around and it comes back to our price and helps us get out at break even. Or most of the time, what happens is that we get out of a trade with huge losses only to see the price turn around and come right back to our price making us feel 'if only i had held for just 50 more pips !!'...sigh....

Though, on the face of it, the above 2 scenarious point to the situation where you might feel that it is good to hold on to losing trades, lets consider these points. Usually, when we hold on to losing trades, it most probably means that our system and strategy has gone for a toss, our money management is all screwed up and in effect, we are no longer in control of the trade. We allow our drawdown to pile up, the loss is way more than the stop loss. What this does is that it stops us taking other trades, either because we dont have the money due to large drawdown or we are simply too focussed on getting out of the losing trade that we dont see obvious setups or we are too scared that we might increase our losses by taking more trades and hence refrain from taking trades.

So, the losing trade not only makes us lose a lot of money but also stops us taking trades which could have given us some easy money. We could have simply cut our losses at say, 100 pips or so and easily made that amount by taking 2-3 good trades in a couple of days rather than hold on to the drawdown, lose good trades and finally lose on this trade as well.

Then comes the emotional content where we sit on the computer for long hours hoping and praying that things would somehow turn around increasing the pressure on us and making us a nervous wreck. Believe me, its not worth it. Trading is meant to be simple, easy and straightforward if you do it the right way. Just stick to your system that works, no matter what, take losses, as they are a integral part of trading and that will go a great way in making you a much better trader and a successful one at that. It saves you a lot of money and a lot of tension if you take your losses. It might sound a bit contradictory but try it...It Works !!

Need Help with Data

2009-07-19T18:47:00.000-07:00

As you all might be knowing, we are in the process of automating our system for various pairs. For this, we need forex historical End Of Day Data. So, if anyone has lot of forex data or can let us know where we can find lot of forex data (atleast 25-30 yrs), please do let us know. Your help would be greatly appreciated and would also go a long way in making our system a great success as it is proving to be. Please email me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-19T18:38:00.000-07:00

The EURUSD pair is entering crucial territory now. It has been showing some very good strength over the last week and it now threatens a breakout from its long time range of 1.38 to 1.42. Attached is the 4H chart for EU where the strength of this pair over the last few bars is obvious for everyone to see.

This pair has refused to fall down over the last few days and has since been moving higher and higher. For now, you can see that the last bar has broken a major resistance at 1.4160. But , in my charts, the last 4H bar is just 30 mins old and so i would not take this as a true break atleast for the next hour or so.

If the price does stay above 1.4160, then this is a confirmed break but still this pair is up against some huge resistance at 1.42 and then around 1.4250 where a previous high exists. This is why this pair is at a crucial territory. Entering longs at this price may not be a great idea. We need to either wait for a retrace or wait for the price to break 1.4250 in a clean manner to go long.

On the downside, the support exists at 1.4160, 1.41 and then 1.4040. On the upside, there is strong resistance at 1.42 and 1.4250. A break of 1.4250 should open up 1.45.

For today, i dont have any specific bias. I will be looking to buy dips but i would be looking for small profits on my longs unless and until 1.4250 is cleanly broken. In other words, the bias is still to the upside but we need 1.4250 to be taken out for us to enter longs with confidence...

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-16T18:16:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. As can be seen from the chart, yesterday, we again had a nice breakout and the high of the previous day was broken which was a good sign for the longs. The pair moved up to its next resistance at 1.4160 where a previous high exists.

The resistance proved tough for this pair and hence this pair has since retraced. Now it has come down to be close to its support at 1.4110. I would expect this pair to retrace a bit more and reach 1.4060 where a strong support exists. The fact that this pair has been making some decent progress and has been breaking some good resistances shows us that this pair still has lot of strength left in it.

For today, i would expect this pair to reach 1.4060 and i do not expect this price to be broken. If this price is indeed broken, then this pair should move down further on to 1.4010 and then 1.3950 and then on to 1.3910.

I would expect this pair to make another attempt at the high at 1.4160. The problem for this pair in moving higher is the row of strong resistances that it has on its own. It has resistances at 1.4160, 1.42 and then 1.4250 and 1.4290, all of which are very very strong resistances. This should be an interesting day.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-15T22:12:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a nice small breakout and it went upto the strong resistance at 1.4110. After that, it was faced with a lot of selling and hence this pair broke down and now it trades at around 1.4070.

An important thing to note here in this chart is the bearish pin bar on this 4H chart. It is also from a region od decent resistance which shows that this is indeed a viable pin bar and something to take note of. So today, we have to tread carefully and all longs could be in danger.

Only comforting factor in this is that the price is currently near a very strong support but unless the high of yesterday is taken out, i would expect this pair to slowly move down and again continue to be within the bigger range of 1.38 to 1.42.

For today, on the upside, we have resistance at 1.4110 and then at 1.4160 and then 1.4210. On the downside, the supports are at 1.4060, 1.4000 and then at 1.3960 and 1.3910. For today, i expect some more ranging with bias to the downside.

Updates on Signal Service

2009-07-15T18:28:00.000-07:00

The four day break seems to have done a world of good for me. This week has been a great week so far. We have had nice good returns from very few signals which have had a very good success rate. Usually, Mondays are very tough to trade as each trader, big and small, comes in with his own intrepretation of the events over the weekend and tries to trade it that way and that makes the market highly volatile with each one pulling the market in his direction.

But this Monday, we made a killing and made more than 220 pips from just 4-5 trades. Tuesday was a bit of a slow day for the market and for me and we managed to make only about 80 pips. Yesterday was also a very good trade where we took only about 4 trades with very high success and we still ended up with more than 150 pips.

So, overall, this week has been great so far where we have made more than 450 pips over 3 days. Lets hope that the trend continue for the rest of the week as well.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-14T18:24:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As is usual nowadays, and i am tired of saying this again and again, we continued to range yesterday as well. Again, with the lack of any direction changing news, this pair was caught in a 120 pips range. It made its way upto 1.4020 and then fell down to 1.3910 and now, as i write, its back up to 1.3975.

This kind of ranging provides us a great way of taking trades and making some easy pips, as long as you use some common sense. Patience and discipline is required for forex trading under all circumstances and thats what is required now as well. Wait patiently for the pair to make its way to the top or bottom of the range and just pick trades in the right direction, with low risk and then you can make some easy pips.

For today, i expect the ranging to continue. The only major news that i can see is the FOMC meeting minutes. This can provide some volatility which might lead to the break of the 120 pip range that we have over the last 2 days but still i expect the pair to stick to the 400 pip range between 1.38 and 1.42.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4010 and then at 1.4060. On the downside, the supports are at 1.3950 and then at 1.3910. The SR regions can be easily located by seeing the charts. Just be patient and play the range.

Forex Course Launch

2009-07-14T10:49:00.000-07:00

Today, i have decided to launch another very long-standing request from a lot of my members. Lot of people have been asking me when I would be able to launch a forex course.

Today, i am proud to say that i am ready to launch the forex course. I will be covering all topics right from the basics of forex, technical analysis, how to analyse, what to look out for, couple of strategies, how to use Murray Maths etc. right till whatever i know now. I will be covering all these topics in this course as much as I can.

The classes will be over the net and will most involve text chats, charts, tutorials etc. It will be spread over a period of 3-5 months as i want to cover things at a slow and steady pace.

Those who are interested please mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com as i can take in only a limited number of people as i want to pay individual attention to each one who joins the course. Do mail back.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-13T19:41:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As expected yesterday, this pair continued to range for the whole of yesterday. There was nothing yesterday that could trigger a break of this range and this range seems very very strong for now. This pair ranged between 1.4010 and 1.3900. This makes it a nightmare for swing traders and a dream come true for range traders.

Anyway, for today, there is a bit of major news which is to be released from the USA. I expect this to cause increased volatility and this pair might test the extremes of its range today as a result of the news today. It remains to be seen whether it can indeed break the range today but i do not expect it to be broken. For the past many weeks, this pair has been trading between 1.38 and 1.42 and i expect this to continue today as well.

On the upside, as yesterday, the resistances are at 1.4010 and then at 1.4060, 1.41 and 1.4160.

On the downside the supports are at 1.39, 1.3855 and a strong support at 1.38.

I expect the ranging to continue today as well.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-12T17:54:00.001-07:00

Back after about a week or so.. I am fresh and hopefully stronger and better than before. Now, lets get down to the analysis. This pair still seems to be stuck in a range for the past so many weeks. Though it has had its share of ups and downs and wild swings, you can see that all of this has been within a range and this range has been much smaller when compares to the swings that the other pairs have had.

To me, this ranging has shown the strength of this pair more than anything else. You can see that this pair has not broken down below 1.38 during all these time. Of course, it has not exceeded 1.42 as well but the fact that this pair did not fall when all other pairs did, shows the strength of this pair.

As for today, i expect the ranging to continue as so far, there has not been any trigger for it to break the range. On the upside, the resistances are at 1.3980, 1.4008 and then at 1.4050. On the downside, the supports are at 1.3950, 1.3920 and then at 1.3850. I expect the price to range between these S and R for the whole of today unless there is a major breakout. In such a case, we simply take a trade in that direction.

No Updates !!??

2009-07-09T18:46:00.000-07:00

Many of you might have been wondering on how i have not been updating this blog for the past couple of days. In fact, i have also not given signals nor written any articles, nor posted anything on forums for the past couple of days. The main reason for this has been the fact that i have been a bit busy with some personal work and hence decided to take a break from forex for this week.

Forex is a tough and taxing thing and it needs me to always be on top of it to write/give proper analysis. So, instead of me spending less time on it and thus giving wrong analysis, i thought i would rather take a full break and come back stronger than ever from next week and spend more time in analysis so that i can pass on the same to you guys. So, its time for a break this week.

But this week, i have been utilising it very well to spend time with family and also work on our automated forex system along with Richard. Working on this has been a fascinating experience so far. It amazing how much of hard and thorough work is involved in this and how much of coding we have had to do. We have had to import data, write macros, check the history, collect data history, format them into the way we want it, run it through the software, optimize it, change parameters, re-optimize it. HMMM...Thats a lot of work...Isnt it??!!

But well worth all the effort so far as can be seen in our results for GU. Now we are optimizing it for GBPCHF and EURJPY and we should have them ready in a couple of months time and then we will have a better system and even better results !! Quite amazing to think of the potential.

Already, we have been contacted by a couple of funds who have expressed interest and we are thinking of having our own fund along with being traders for these funds as well. We will have to see how things go. Thats all for now !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-06T18:28:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As expected, this pair continued to range yesterday as well though the low of the range was a bit less than what was expected. But considering the fall in other pairs like GU, GJ etc., the fall in this pair was smaller and also within the expected range.

After the fall yesterday, we have seen this pair again move up into the nice range that it has been for the past so many days. Not much of a major news is expected from any country today except for a bit of news from GB. So, i do not expect this pair to be affected much and i would expect this pair to continue to range today as well within the ranges that were mentioned yesterday.

What has also been shown yesterday is the strength of this pair in the fact that this pair has refused to fall even considering the huge fall in other pair. So buying dips is the way to go on this pair.

Just to repeat, on the downside, this pair has support at 1.3920 and then at 1.3885 and i do not expect this support to be broken today. On the upside, the resistance would be at 1.40 and then at 1.4060 and then a strong one at 1.41. Expect more ranging today with bias to the upside.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-05T18:15:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As can be seen, the week has started quite badly for this pair. It has gone down to its support level at 1.3950 and now has just about started to pick up. The main point to note here is that this pair is still within its range in which it has been for the past 3-4 weeks. I do not see this range being broken anytime soon. Unless something drastic happens, i dont see this range being broken. If and when it does, it is going to be a very big move.

There is not much news during the day but the US markets would be back after the long weekend and this could make the markets interesting today. I dont expect the range to be broken today as well.

On the downside, this pair has strong support at 1.3950 and then a huge support at 1.3920 and i do not expect this support to be broken today. On the upside, the resistance is at 1.40 and then at 1.4050 and a strong one at 1.41.

I expect this pair to range between these supports and resistances today.

More Updates on the Automated System

2009-07-03T22:09:00.000-07:00

End of another quiet steady week. The trading was nice and easy and steady. No major hiccups and no major upheavals as well. Just standard stuff of about 100 pips a day. Nice, slow, steady and easy. There is a saying that Good Trading is Boring. How true that is.

Coming back to the automated system, it continues on its ways and it has been going on nice and steady. This system has been automated and optimized for GBPUSD and has been providing some very good, steady trades. Myself and Richard are now training our attention on EURJPY and GBPCHF currently and we hope to fully optimize it in the next 2-3 months. Once these 2 pairs are optimized, we should be having some good steady returns of 25-30% a month atleast. This is indeed a long term project and we ultimately plan to optimize this system for atleast 20 pairs which should take quite a bit of time but which would be worth the effort.

Attached is the list of trades that this system has taken ever since it was put into a live account from Jan 1, 2009. It started off with a balance of $5000 and now it has a balance of over $13,000 which is pretty good going considering the fact that we have used it to trade only one pair so far.

I will keep you guys updated on how this system goes. In the meantime, if anyone has any queries about the system or the managed fund, do mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com.

Automated System - Managed Fund

2009-07-02T18:49:00.001-07:00

A few days back, i had announced the launch of the automated system which i had been developing along with Richard and which had been under test in a live account for 6 mnths and i had also asked for suggestions from all of you on what can be done with it to make it useful for everyone involved.

An overwhelming number of you had suggested to use the automated system in a managed fund. After all, thats what the hedge funds do. They take your money and put them in funds which are traded by automated trading systems. So, a lot of you had suggested that i could start a managed fund and use the automated system to run on this fund.

I already do manage funds but they have been managed directly by me. This automated system returns 7-10% a month on a consistent basis and so i think this would be a good option for those who want consistent returns.

So, if anyone of you is interested in joining in this managed fund, please do let me know. You can mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com ...We can discuss details over mail.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-02T18:07:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday was a day of a huge fall which shows that there is huge resistance around 1.41-1.42 and i really cannot see how this pair can break that resistance. There have been several attempts to break that resistance but all those attempts have been futile.

To the credit of this pair, it has also not fallen below 1.37 and this pair has been ranging within these 300-400 pips for about 3 weeks now. There does not seem to be any breakout in this pair. Everytime a breakout has been threatened, it has only fallen back into the range.

Yesterday we saw the huge fall and we saw the price being taken to strong support around 1.3920 as can be seen from the chart. We have also seen the price bounce from there for about 50 pips now and it has now been capped by resistance at 1.3980.

Today, there is very little, if any, news around and it is also a holiday in the US which would mean low volume. This could either mean slow movements in price or high volatility as low volume enables easy manipulation. We need to have our fingers crossed.

With this scenario, i expect a day of more ranging with 1.3920 providing good support. I do not expect this price to be broken today. On the upside, i expect resistance at 1.3980, 1.40 and then around 1.4050. I would be quite surprised if either 1.3920 or 1.4050 is broken today considering the circumstances.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-07-01T18:55:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday was a nice clean day for this pair where it moved down as a form of small retrace and then it kept ranging for most of the day till the release of US news. After the news release, EU then blasted off through some of the major resistances at 1.4060 and then 1.4100 and 1.4160.

This was a nice upmove but last few hours, we have seen that this pair has slowly started settling down and has also moved down slightly. It has now gone down and hit the support around 1.4110 and has now started moving up slowly.

For today, i expect this pair to move up further but 1.4160 and then 1.4230 would be crucial. These 2 huge resistances need to be broken cleanly for the upmove to continue else we would see this pair moving down slowly.

On the downside, the supports are at around 1.4110, 1.4060 and then at 1.40. On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4160, 1.42 and then 1.4235.

There is a lot of news that is scheduled to be released today, both in Euro and USD, and so this should be an important day, a day which will hopefully give us clues on future direction. I have a gut feel that this is going to move up today.

Updates on Signal Service

2009-07-01T09:49:00.000-07:00

The signal service has been going on well over the past 2 weeks. Now, unlike the flurry of signals over a day, we have switched to a more sedate form of trading where i give only 5-6 signals a day but these trades are pretty solid and rarely do they lose.

So i am happy trading this way as it reduces a lot of stress for the subscribers and also for myself. These signals have been doing well over the past couple of weeks and we have been getting 50-100 pips a day. In fact, one of my subscribers was so interested that he has offered to open a website for me. That was very nice of him.

Overall it has been an interesting couple of weeks and i hope to continue this steady trading over the forthcoming weeks as well.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-06-30T18:31:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. As in EURUSD, this pair has also had a crazy couple of days wherein we saw a huge move up and we also saw a move which seemed a break of long term resistance at 1.66 but again we have seen a big move down based on bad news from GB and also due to good news from USA. As i write, it rests at a good resistance at 1.6418 and it would be an interesting next couple of days.

What has been curious over the last few days has been the fact that there has been so much ranging in so many pairs for so many days and yet, we are unclear about the direction. My medium term trend for both EU and GU is up but right now, these 2 pairs are caught between very strong supports and resistances and have been finding it difficult to break either of these.

For today, on the downside, the support is at 1.4018 and then at 1.6350 and then at 1.6250. On the upside, the resistances are at 1.6480 and then if this resistance is broken, we can again see an attempt at breaking 1.66.

For today, i expect some more ranging till the US news release later in the day and then the next course of direction would be determined.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-30T18:24:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. There has been some strange moves in this pair over the past couple of days and i believe these moves can be attributed to the fact that we were nearing month end which was also the end of the half year. We are also nearing a long weekend for the USA and all these could have contributed to the extra volatility of this pair.

We have had a big move up and then we have had a fall down which has shown that the breakout was a false one. As i write, the price is resting at a strong support at 1.4016. I would expect this price support region to hold and we might see a move up again. Today and tomorrow is very crucial as we have some big news coming out of the US region over the next 2 days which could lead to additional volatility leading into the long weekend. It should be an interesting next 2 days.

On the downside, the supports are at 1.4016 and then at 1.3980. If these are broken, then we have a strong support at 1.3920. I guess we are getting pretty much used to these supports nowadays with all this ranging going on.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4060, 1.41 and then a huge resistance at 1.4160.

For today, i expect 1.4016 to be a good support and expect price to move up a bit till the news. Expect more ranging till the news and then the news will determine the next direction.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-29T18:07:00.000-07:00

Attached are charts for 1H, 4H and daily charts for the same pair, EURUSD. From the 1H charts, it is pretty clear that all down moves have been on low volume and all up moves have been supported by increasing volume. This is a clear indication that everyone favors the price going up rather than coming down.

On the 4H charts, you can see that the price is in the region of strong resistance. We can see several previous highs in this region and hence it would take a lot of effort for price to clear the region. Also, we see another major previous high around 1.4160 which should be the next region of strong resistance. If and when this is broken, we can see price moving to 1.4235 (from daily chart) and then to 1.44.

On the downside, the supports are at 1.41, which is a strong area of support, and then we have supports at 1.4040 and then at 1.40.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4120, 1.4160 and then at 1.4235.

I would be expecting an up day today and price should move up after a small retracement.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-28T18:04:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Friday was an interesting day with the price making another attempt to break the resistance at 1.41. This attempt failed and what this has caused is that it has now resulted in a double top at 1.41 and now price is falling as i write.

I would expect the fall to continue through the day though the Asian session is usually quite misleading. But there are quite strong signs that the USD is going to strengthen today and it would be interesting to see how the day works out.

If the price does move down, then the support are at 1.4010 and then at 1.3977 and then at 1.3916.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4070 and then at 1.41 which should prove to be a strong resistance and i dont expect it to be broken today.

Overall, the trend should be bearish for the day but any clean break of 1.41 should signal higher prices though i dont whether it will happen today.

Major Announcement

2009-06-28T10:47:00.000-07:00

Today, i can proudly announce about a project which I, along with a very good friend of mine, Richard from Holland, have been working on. Richard is a fantastic trader who has been working on an automated strategy for the past 2 yrs. I had joined him a few months back and now this automated system is running successfully.

A lot of work has gone into the system. This is a very complicated system with about 2700 parameters and we have used more than 40 computers to optimize this strategy. This system has been tested on over 35 years of data and has come through great.

It has been running on a live account now for the past 6 months and it has produced returns of 13% per month so far and this will only get better as we include more and more pairs.

The strategy and the software is now ready and it is just a question of optimizing it for each and every pair and this is what takes a lot of time and effort.

Now, we are looking to see how we could make this fully useful and we are looking at suggestions from all of you. Please mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com if you have any suggestions on how we could make this a win-win for all of us. I am convinced that we are on to something big and it should be interesting how the next couple of months would go.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-25T18:09:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, it had been pointed out that 1.3920 would be the crucial price and any break of that would lead to higher prices. Thats what had happened. We had a nice break of 1.3920 and then we saw price moving up very fast. It looks like we are getting close to the day when the range, which has been there for the past couple of weeks, might be broken.

So, we have had price move through resistances at 1.3920 and then 1.3980 and a psychological resistance at 1.4. This pair now looks good for more.

There are lot of resistances very closeby and it would take a lot of wood to be chopped for it to keep moving higher. On the upside, we have resistances at 1.4070, then at 1.41 and then at 1.4130, all of which are quite strong resistances. Then we have the major resistances at 1.4230 and at 1.4330.

On the downside, we have a very strong support at 1.3980-1.4 and i do not expect this support to be broken for today. If it indeed does get broken, then we can see price moving down to 1.3920 again and again we can see the start of some more ranging !!

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-06-24T18:10:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. Like EU, this pair also had a nice fall from its highs yesterday. This is probably the third or the fourth time that the price has fallen from the highs at around 1.66 and this shows that this resistance region is very very strong. But as more and more attempts are made at this resistance region, it will become weaker and weaker and it will eventually have to break and give way. Lets see how many more attempts are going to be made at this resistance.

Attached is the 4H chart as well and you can see repeated attempts being made at the resistance at 1.66 and finally the price failed to break it and hence it fell down. Since then, the price has moved down to around 1.63 which has been a region of support and lot of traffic as well and then we have had the bounce up now.

As for today, i would expect some more movement down and this move down could go down as far as 1.63. 1.64 would be quite crucial and if it does break, then we should go down to 1.63.

On the downside, as mentioned above, we have support at 1.64 and then at 1.6350 and then at 1.63. On the upside, we should have resistance at around 1.6460 and then at 1.65, 1.6540 and then a huge resistance at 1.66 which i dont expect to be broken, atleast today.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-24T17:58:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, this pair had a very nice drop after it touched one of the major resistances close to 1.42. I have attached the 4H chart for this pair as well. In this, we can clearly see the pin bar at the top. Pin bar from a region of resistance after a swing high. A perfect setup to go short. And as you can see, we had a nice drop from the top.

This drop continued after the news as well and of late, we find that the price has not bounced nicely from the support at 1.3920. Beautiful price action, nothing else.

As for today, i would expect some more recovery in the price of EU and expect some more ranging during the day. I would be very surprised if 1.3920 is broken and so, any approach to 1.3920 would be an excellent place to go long.

On the downside, we have supports at 1.3920 and then at 1.3880 and then 1.3830. On the upside, we have resistances at 1.40 and then 1.4050 and then at 1.41. Hmmm...Dont we seem to be at the same place where we were a couple of days back ? Same place, same SR. More Ranging !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-23T18:58:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As was predicted yesterday, the price broke through 1.3920 and made a big run up. It did face a huge resistance near 1.4 but it did manage to break through that as well after the US news was released.

The main point to note here is that this pair has now taken out 1.40 and also 1.4038 which had been a previous high as well. It now faces some resistance at 1.41.

I expect this pair to go down to 1.4038 which should now serve as good support and then expect it to move through 1.41 and then further upwards. I would long this pair if and when it reaches 1.4050.

On the upside there is reistance at 1.41, 1.4160 and then at 1.4221. On the downside there should be good support at 1.4038 and then at 1.40. I do not expect this pair to go down below 1.40 today.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-06-22T17:52:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. This pair had a big fall yesterday. The last couple of weeks have confirmed the fact that 1.66 would be the medium term top for this pair and there cannot be any more upside to this pair unless and until 1.66 is broken.

As can be seen from the chart, this pair is now near a decent support and i expect some more ranging around this area. For today, i would expect a retrace to about 1.6380 and then the fall should continue again and i expect the price to go down to atleast 1.62 where a huge support exists.

On the upside, there is resistance at 1.6350 and then a strong one around 1.6380-1.64. I would expect price to reach around this region sometime during the day.

On the downside, there is support at 1.63. A break of this could lead to price moving down to 1.6240 and then to 1.6180-1.62 where a huge support exists.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-22T17:43:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. This pair has shown amazing resilience amidst the fall in almost all other pairs. Due to this, all the euro pairs have had significant gains yesterday.

Yesterday, 1.38 has served as very good support and this price seems to be serving as good support even now. As predicted, 1.3920 has served as good resistance and we did not see price going up above that for the whole of yesterday. We also saw this pair breaking through another important support at 1.3884 and since that break, we have seen this pair ranging between 1.38 and 1.3885.

On the upside, we have small resistance at 1.3865 and then a strong ones at 1.3885 and then at 1.3920. We can expect more upside only after break of 1.3920.

On the downside, there is huge support around 1.38. A break of this price could see price heading down to 1.3750.

For today, i would expect more ranging between 1.38 and 1.39 until 1.3920 is taken out. After which i expect more upside.

Intraday Signal for EURGBP

2009-06-22T09:53:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 4H chart for EURGBP. As can be seen, there is a huge pin bar on this chart. The location is also good as the pin bar is off an area of previous support and also there has been a strong MM level at 0.8423.

Already, this bullish pin bar has yielded about 50 pips but it looks good for more after some minor retracement.

The next chart is the 1H chart which seems to throw a spanner in the works as you can see a very high volume bar taking the price to 0.8477 but the bar finishes in the middle and the high of this bar has not been broken yet. A break of this will lead to more upside on this pair.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-21T18:19:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. The week has begun a bit confusingly as a lot of people would have expected GU and EU and other pairs to continue their upside movement from last week. But today morning, we find that all the pairs have been dropping down, especially EU.

As can be seen from the chart, EU broke through important support at 1.3916 again and is now trading below it. We can also see that the break was quite good as it was done through a large bar (as usually happens with good breaks of SR) and the volume is also quite high for the Asian session.

It should be interesting for the rest of the day on how this break plays out. We have to see whether this break holds or whether it is going to range with a range of 100 pips as it has been doing for last few days or whether it is the typicaly Monday morning 'cheater' and we are going to shoot right back up.

As usual, 1.3920 would be crucial. A clean break of this should lead to more upside.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.3920 and then at 1.4. On the downside, the supports are at 1.3885 and then at 1.3855 and then at 1.38. I would expect more ranging today and any approach to 1.3855, we can go long and any approach to 1.4, we can go short.

Trading Psychology - Entry and Exit

2009-06-20T21:51:00.000-07:00

One of the major problems faced by people who enter into trading and which they continue to face till they become professional traders is the difficulty that they face in choosing the right moment to enter and exit trades. I am no exception and i have faced the same situation when i started out trading and it took me close to 4-5 yrs to get to the right moment to enter/exit trades.

The trick behind entering any good trade is to cut out the emotion behind the entry. Normally what we do is that we see price rising and immediately, we are tempted into entering a long. The temptation is too strong. Guess what !! Thats exactly what the pros want you to do. Give in to emotions, give in to your temptations. They want you to trade emotionally. And the trick to be a successful trader is to do the opposite of what the pros want you to do. Why ? Cos thats what they do. They never enter on seeing rising prices.

Trading, as such, is very easy. All you need to do is to open a 1H or 4H or daily chart and you can easily see places where prices had reversed earlier and or had been well supported. All that you have to do is wait for price to reach such areas and take the trades accordingly. Its so easy on the face of it. But why do all of us struggle in doing this simple thing ? Its because of our emotions and our lack of discipline. We see a previous resistance being broken and price running up and we immediately jump into the bandwagon without noticing the simple logic that any good break will almost always be followed by a retracement back into the resistance region. We see price running up 50 pips after the break and we enter there and when there is a retrace back into the resistance region, we are down 50 pips, we get too scared and we close to escape more drawdown. Wat happens? Price simply moves up again to where we thought it would.

The key to successful trading is to control your emotions and have discipline. Wait for good entries, they are always there and will always be there. All you need to do is wait. Have patience, have discipline. You will succeed. I promise.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-18T17:39:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Here we can see that yesterday, we had a nice run up and down and thats what has been happening in the past 1 week on all pairs. They have been ranging very nicely which is like hell for the swing traders and a dream come true for day traders.

Anyway, coming back to this pair, this broke through crucial resistance at 1.3916 and had a nice run up to close to 1.4 where is a major psychological resistance. After that, it meandered around aimlessly for sometime as it was caught between support at 1.3916 and resistance at 1.4. In the last few hours, we have seen that the support at 1.3916 has been broken and it looks like a convincing break to me.

We might have a visit back to 1.3920 pretty soon and that will be crucial. If the visit back to 1.3920 leads to a break, then we are in for more upside. Else, we will be seeing more downside with 1.3920 acting as resistance.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.3920 and then a major one at 1.4 and then at 1.41.

On the downside, the supports are at 1.3885 and then at 1.3825.

For today, as said above, the visit to 1.3920 will be crucial but my gut feel is that EU has more downside than upside today.

Fxstreet Analyst

2009-06-18T17:35:00.001-07:00

A nice thing has happened over the past 1 week for me. I was contacted by Fxstreet and i was asked whether i would be willing to join their analyst team. I gave it a thought and then decided, why not ??!! It will help me reach out to some more people and also help me share knowledge and experience and would hence help me and others grow as well.

So, i have joined the Fxstreet analyst team and in a few days time, you can see my reports and articles on Fxstreet as well. I will try to improve and increase the articles that i write and i hope to bring a variety. So do look out for me at Fxstreet as well !!

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-16T18:02:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. The tough ways of trading continues in all the pairs with all of them ranging within specific price ranges making it a nightmare for swing traders and a dream come true for day traders. Like in other pairs, this pair also rose nicely yesterday and went upto the strong resistance at 1.3916.

There has been previous resistance around this area and this proved to be a very tough resistance to break once again. Several attempts were made to break this resistance, as can be seen from the chart, but all of them failed. As you can see from the charts, the subsequent attempts at breaking this resistance was being done at lower and lower volume which means that the buyers were being dried up slowly and once the buyers were all dried up, the price fell.

For today, 1.3916 would be crucial. A clean break of this would lead to higher prices in this pair but unless this price is broken, we should see more downside.

On the upside, the resistance is at 1.3916 and if this does get broken, the next resistance is at 1.4.

On the downside, the support is at 1.38 which is quite a strong support and then at 1.3750.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-15T17:56:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. For most part of the day yesterday, this pair was ranging but it was clear that it had a bearish bias. Finally, during the US session, this pair broke down and also broke through an important support at around 1.38. This price area had been serving as a very strong support for quite some weeks now.

The fact that this support area has been broken leads us to the premise that more downside is possible in this pair. For today, i expect a slight retrace back to 1.38 and then for the fall to continue.

For the downside, the supports are at 1.3745 and then at 1.3672. A break of this support would lead the price to go down to 1.3430.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.38 and then at 1.3850. For today, i expect more movement downward and i do not expect 1.3850 to be broken.

Updates on Signal Service

2009-06-15T10:50:00.000-07:00

Last week was a very rough and tough week for a lot of traders including me. The Monday started off very badly with us losing a little more than 300 pips for the day. We recovered more than half of that during Tuesday. Wednesday was bad again with us losing about 180 pips but we made that all up on Thursday. We again made more than 100 pips on Friday which ensured that we lost only 100 pips for the whole of the week.

To compensate for the people on trial and paid service, i decided to extend the trial for those already on trial, by a week and also extended the period for the paid subscribers for a couple of days.

Today was again a good day with us making close to 100 pips for the day. I have reduced the number of calls but increased the success percentage. So, a bit boring as the number of trades is less but i would rather take a boring successful day rather than an exciting losing day...

I would continue my posting of analysis from tomorrow.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-06-11T18:21:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. Like EURUSD, it has also made a nice retracement and has been making its upward march for the past few days. True to its character, we have had some violent moves in this pair this week with both the move down and the subsequent move up being equally violent. Honestly, at the beginning of the week, i expected this pair to move down a lot but it has shown surprising strength and has come right back up to its previous top.

This pair is now at a crucial point. The previous top is nearby at 1.6650. It was from here that we had a 800 pip drop the previous time. Now, we need to see whether this top is going to be taken out or not. If it is not, then we are again going to go down. If this top is indeed taken out, then we are on our way again to very high levels.

On the downside, we have good support at 1.6540 and then at 1.6480 and finally at 1.6420. This price should prove as a very strong support and i dont see price going down below this today.

On the upside, as pointed out above, we have huge resistance at 1.6620 and then a bigger one at 1.6661. If this is taken out, then we should have atleast a 300-400 pips move above in the next few days.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-11T18:02:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. This pair has been showing some amazing strength for the past few weeks and we can see that this pair just does not seem to want to go down. All dips in the price have been just retracements and they have been bought by buyers who have just used the dips to buy at lower prices. This pair has not rarely gone down below 1.38 over the last few weeks and this looks good for more.

As for yesterday, again we had a nice retracement and then the price has again come right back up. The bullish pin bar at the bottom of the retracement was a good indication that the price was going to reverse and move back up, which it did. I would expect more upside today.

On the downside, there is good support at 1.4088 and this support has not been broken for the past few hours. If this support does get broken, then we should be going down to 1.4050 and then to 1.4000.

On the upside, there is resistance at 1.4160 and then at 1.4220 and then a major resistance at 1.4343 where we can see the previous top.

For today, 1.4088 would be crucial. If this is broken, then it would be a bearish day and we will be going down today else if this is not broken cleanly, we should be moving up.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-09T18:41:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. This pair had a huge upmove yesterday along with its cousin, GBPUSD. It broke through an important psychological resistance at 1.40 and is now resting at a strong support at around 1.4050. As can be seen from the chart, this pair has been ranging for the past few hours. Whether this ranging is accumulation and hence a breakout to upside or distribution and hence a breakout to the downside, only time will tell.

On the downside, we have support at 1.4050 and then 1.4000. If both these supports are broken, then we have the next support close to 1.3920.

On the upside, there is some strong resistance at 1.41 and then at 1.4160 which is a even bigger resistance.

The trade plan for today would be to wait for break of 1.41 or 1.400 and then take a trade in that direction.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-08T18:31:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, was a topsy turvy day with price whipsawing on all the pairs and finally the prices of most pairs ending the day where they had started. Nowadays, that has become very typical of Mondays where the big guys just seem to take all the pairs on a big ride to confuse everyone.

Anyway, we are where we are. Yesterday, we had a nice move down to the strong support at 1.3810. Though the downmove was something that was expected, the size of it surprised me as i was expecting a move only till around 1.39. In any case, we had an upmove after that and this move has shown that there is still lot of strength left in this pair. Now, this pair is trying to clear 1.3930 which had served as a decent support yesterday.

On the downside, we can support at 1.3890 and then a very strong support at 1.3810.

On the upside, there is some decent resistance at 1.3930 and then at 1.40. Today, i would expect the price to move up after a small retrace into the high 1.38s.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-07T21:36:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. This pair had a huge fall last week with the USD getting stronger against all major currencies. Now this pair has entered into a region of high traffic. Going back in the charts , we can see that this region is highly congested with a lot of supports and resistances and with a lot of buying and selling going on.

On the downside, we have had a nice bounce on this pair from the support at 1.3916 and this pair has risen quite a bit over the last few hours. We have supports at 1.3960 and then a major support at 1.3916. I would be very suprised if this support is broken today.

On the upside, we have resistance at 1.4038 and then another major resistance at 1.4110.

For today, i would expect some ranging between the support at 1.3916 and 1.4110 and with no major news on any pair today, i do not expect a breakout from these SR regions. So, it would be a good idea to play this range today.

Perfect PA setup

2009-06-06T19:31:00.000-07:00

Last week was full of perfect PA setups on almost all pairs that i could lay my eyes on. Here is one on EURAUD. The first pic is the 1H chart for EURAUD. Now watch the price action on the move to resistance at around 1.7765 and then the move down to 1.7456. Do you see anything special ? No?? There is nothing special in it unless seen by trained eyes who can spot beautiful PA setups and money making opportunities.

This pair made through till it faced a strong resistance at around 1.7765 - 1.7822. Newbies would see this beautiful move up and be tempted to go long at the top. But have a look at the 4H chart and it shows lot of congestion in that price range previously. So unless this price range is broken either way, you should stay away from the trade. So, you wait. Waiting is very tedious but good trading is boring. It sure is. Then you see a breakdown thru the congestion region to the downside and you see a move to 1.7578. You are tempted again to go short. Hold on !! 80-90 % of the time, a break through a SR region will be followed by a move back into the SR region atleast one more time. Here the support has been broken but in the 1H chart, see the price move back into the support/resistance region.

Why does this happen ? Once the break in SR happens, the big guys push back the price into the SR region to tempt newbies and the small guys into thinking that there is going to be an upmove (in this case) and tempt them into buying again. So, you wait again. This move back into the SR region may take anywhere between a few mins to a few hours depending on the Tf that you trade. Now the price moves back into the SR region and again there is a fall.

You wait anxiously. The best entry is obtained on the break of the support from which the upmove into the SR region was made. In this case, the upmove back into the SR region started from 1.7595. So, you wait patiently for the break of 1.7595 and at one fine point, the break happens and the price zips through 1.7595. So, where do you enter ? Do you enter at 1.7594 or 1.7593 or 1.7592 or where?

Well, you wait for the support to be broken and price through support. Then, you switch to the lower TF. Watch the 15M chart. Here, you see price break through 1.7595 and move to 1.7555. But as in any other support break you can see price coming back up. You wait for price coming back to 1.7595 and then take a short there. Dont think, dont waver. Just short it. The break of support is confirmed by 2 things : The long bar on the break of support on 1H and the retrace and stalling at the support at 1.7595. If the break had been false, there will be not be any stalling on the retrace back to 1.7595, the price would just zip through 1.7595 and back into the 1.7610 region.

Once you have taken the short on the retrace, just sit tight. Dont waver. Since this has been observed on a 15M chart and this pair is quite volatile, you can be assuredof atleast 50 pips. Just sit tight and enjoy the pips. A perfect PA setup !!

Updates on Signal Service

2009-06-06T19:01:00.000-07:00

I had a very nice break from trading yesterday. I was able to catch up with a lot of pending stuff which had been accumulated over the past week. I did not even switch on my system the whole of yesterday.

Anyway, last week was a great one for my signal service. The start on Monday was not good where we lost about 80 pips but we really picked up over the next 4 days and we finished last week with more than 800 pips in the green. On Tuesday, we made about 150 pips and on Wednesday and Thursday, both days put together, we made more than 500 pips. On Friday, again we made about 150 pips.

It was a great week for the signal service and i received feedback from my subscribers and from the guys on trial that this has been the best signal service that they have ever been in !!

Hope to continue the momentum in the coming week as well !!

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-06-04T18:45:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. This pair has been having a huge fall during this week. The week started off fine for this pair but right from Tuesday, this pair has been having a huge fall and there seems to be nothing to stop it. Now, this pair rests at the support at 1.6110. This is a bit of a surprise for me that this support has been holding on for so long as , looking through the charts, there does not seem to be any major highs or lows at this price range.

So the fact that the price has been supported here for so long has been a surprise to me. Today should be very interesting for this pair as, if the pair finishes anywhere below 1.62, then it should form a huge weekly bearish pin bar which should indicate a huge fall in the coming weeks.

On the downside, there is support at 1.6110 and then a break of this could lead to 1.6080 and then a huge support at 1.60.

On the upside, we should see some good resistance at 1.6150 and then at 1.62 and then at 1.6250.

Unlike the Euro, i would not like to take any direction for this pair as Euro looks strong but this pair looks weak. Should be interesting though.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-04T18:27:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As can be seen, this pair has been consolidating for many hours now. This shows that it is getting ready for a breakout on either side. This pair is now caught between a decently strong resistance and support and has been unable to break out on either side.

The small traders are too scared to take a guess on either direction and the big guys are accumulating more and more and thats why this consolidation and lack of breakout on either side. This consolidation should continue into the London session as well where we can then hopefully see some kind of a breakout.

On the downside, there is good support at 1.4160 and a break of this could lead to the next strong support at 1.41. This price region has proved to be a very very tough support to break and despite the big fall in various pairs over the last few days, this price region has not been convincingly broken yet.

On the upside, we have resistance at 1.4230 which has proven tough to break. A break of this resistance could lead to price moving to 1.4282 which is again a good resistance. Then there is the very strong resistance around 1.4330 which has not been broken for quite sometime now.

For today, i would expect some more consolidation till the London session and considering the strength so far, i would expect a move to the upside today.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-03T19:11:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Amidst all the fall yesterday, this pair has shown amazing strength. Though i had predicted some slowness in the uptrend and some exhaustion as well, i would expected it to fall much more when all the other pairs were falling like nine pins. But this is also good in a way as it makes it much easier to trade all the pairs with EUR in it as you can be sure of the strength of the Euro.

Anyway, as expected, the Euro was stuck between the strong support and the resistance and did not move out of it though a lot of other pairs broke their strong supports and resistances.

Overnight, all pairs have made a nice retrace back to their supports turned resistances. Today is a big news day with lots of news coming out later in the day in the London session. It should be an interesting day with EU continuing to range within 1.41 and 1.4350. I do not expect any breaks away from these atleast till the news comes out. After that, we have to wait for a break of either of these prices and take the trade in that direction.

On the downside, there is support at 1.4150 and a very strong one at 1.41. On the upside, there is strong resistance at 1.4210, 1.4250 and then at 1.4331.

For today, i expect ranging for most of the day with a breakout later in the day after news release. I would expect a breakout on the upside considering all the strength shown so far.

Updates on signal service

2009-06-03T07:57:00.001-07:00

It has been a wonderful week so far for the signal service...Have made more than 500 pips already this week. The week started off slowly with not much progress for the first day and a half but things really started picking up from the middle of yesterday. We have had fewer signals but those have been highly profitable with not even a single loss so far. Below are the calls as and when i gave them (picked up from yahoo messenger). You can see for yourself (last trade on euraud is still open).

ns_karthik: long GU...1.64
ns_karthik: would expect GU to go down to 1.6350 and then back up...
ns_karthik: exit gu...37 pips..
ns_karthik: short eurgbp....0.8650
ns_karthik: long gbpchf...
ns_karthik: long gbpchf...1.7483
ns_karthik: long eu...1.4231
ns_karthik: exit eu...25 pips
ns_karthik: exit gbpchf 100 pips
ns_karthik: exit eurbpg 17 pips
ns_karthik: long gu....
ns_karthik: 1.6526
ns_karthik: exit gu ...25 pips..
ns_karthik: good day today...more than 100 pips so far...
ns_karthik: looking for high probability trades only...so the number of trades might be few....hope it is fine..
ns_karthik: long gu....
ns_karthik: 1.6533
ns_karthik: for gu long...move sl to be
ns_karthik: hope u guys still have th gu open...
ns_karthik: exit gu
ns_karthik: exit gu...52 pips
ns_karthik: exit audnzd swing for 6 pips...we dont seem to be going anywhere....
ns_karthik: super last half of the day....made more than 200 pips..
ns_karthik: guys, i am done for the day
ns_karthik: be back in abt 7 hrs
ns_karthik: no quality trades yet guys...maybe we will have to wait till london session
ns_karthik: will be gone for 1.5 hrs
ns_karthik: long usdchf...1.0630...
ns_karthik: long GU...1.6616
ns_karthik: short EURAUD...1.7345
ns_karthik: exit GU long...26 pips
ns_karthik: exit gu long...26 pips
ns_karthik: short eurcad...1.5464
ns_karthik: have 3 trades open....ec, uc and ea...lets see what they do
ns_karthik: we still have 3 trades open....do keep them open
ns_karthik: exit euraud....26 pips
ns_karthik: exit usdchf...42 pips
ns_karthik: that makes it 100 pips for the day with one still open with 30 pips in profit
ns_karthik: short GU...1.6575
ns_karthik: exit gu short...30 pips
ns_karthik: those who have not exited...exit eurcad
ns_karthik: short GU again...1.6556
ns_karthik: exit gu...130 pips...
ns_karthik: have made more than 270 pips today...
ns_karthik: long euraud....1.7426...sl and tp 100 pips
ns_karthik: ok...it might go down a bit....if it finishes at this level today, then tomorrow any move towards 1.7400, would be a good place to long again....
ns_karthik: move sl to BE...

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-02T18:28:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday, again, this pair broke through previous highs and made new highs. Though this pair did make new highs, the momentum seems to have slowed down for this pair and the news highs seem to be taking longer and also seem to be requiring a lot more time and also a lot more effort than what was required previously.

Now, this pair rests at a decent resistance at 1.4282 which is also close to its previous highs and hence should provide good support.

On the downside, there should be good and strong support at 1.4250. A break of this could lead price going down to 1.4170. For today, i do not expect price to go down below this.

On the upper side, this pair could face a large resistance at yesterdays high of 1.4330 and if this is broken, then we could see price moving to 1.44.

Today should be an interesting as for the first time after quite a few days, EU seems to be caught between support as well as resistance and it would indeed take a great effort for this pair to break either of them (1.4170 and 1.4330). Lets see what happens today.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-06-01T18:15:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. This pair has had a nice retracement overnight and as can be seen from the chart, it now rests at a crucial support. This support is quite strong and hence a break of this support could lead to a large fall/retracement.

There was an attempt to break this support but this attempt was met with a huge wall of buyers as can be seen from the large volume on the bar on this chart. We can also see a lot of previous highs on the hourly chart around this price and this again proves that this price range is a good and strong support.

On the downside, the support is at 1.4150, a break of this strong support could lead to price dropping to 1.41 and a break of this could lead to price going to 1.4010.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.4180 and then at 1.4220. For today, i would expect this pair to be a bit weak but it would require a break of 1.4150 to confirm this weakness. Since this price is a strong support, i would expect some retracement towards 1.42 before it again tries to come back and break the support.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-31T22:29:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. As can be seen fropm the chart, right from the open of today, we have been seeing consolidation in GU. Like EU, GU also seems to be getting ready for another run up. But for now, there seems to be some good resistance at 1.6235 though i believe that this resistance would only be for the short term.

On the downside, GU has some good support at 1.62 and then further down at 1.6120 though i do not expect GU to reach this level today.

On the upper side, GU has some good resistance at 1.6235 and a clear break of that will cause GU to move higher. I dont see any major resistance for this pair till it reaches 1.65 and so a long here with target of 1.65 seems like a good swing trade.

Lets see how this plays out today.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-31T18:45:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. The bull train seems to be going on and on and there seems to be no stopping it. I dont see an end to it today as well and i expect the bull train to continue today.

As you can see from the chart, all up bars have had high volume which shows a clear demand for higher prices. The weekend has done nothing for the bullish trend and we seem to be continuing today.

For today, i expect the price to make a small retracement towards the low 1.41s and then expect the price to keep going up higher and higher. The bearish trend in UJ has only further helped the bullish trend in EU.

On the downside, good support exists at 1.41 and then at 1.4040 though i do not expect the price to make it there. If it does reach there, that would be a great place to go long.

On the upper side, there is some strong resistance at 1.4160 and a clear break of that should carry the price to 1.43.

Sample PA setups

2009-05-31T01:37:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 15M chart for GBPJPY which shows some beautiful PA setups, all within a few hrs...Such setups are present all the time on all pairs. This shows that you could easily make more than 100 pips just by trading 2-3 hrs on a single pair alone.Now lets start from the left.

Look at the price bar of the bar which has the largest volume (in red). Look how it finished close to the middle of the bar inspite of the large volume. If the huge volume was caused by buyers, why would the price finish near the middle ?? this shows that selling was there and that the end of the upmove is near....And we are proved right once again. So the price did move up to touch the psychological resistance at 151.5 and dropped heavily.... Another point to note. Any break in support will almost always be followed by a retrace back to the support to pick up any more buyers over there and also to get a good price for the big boys.

After this, look at the pin bar at the bottom with high volume....pin bar, high volume, a sure shot indication that we are changing direction, which we did...

Then we go up again and again we have a high volume bar which closes near the middle....and again, we go down as expected...shows u the power of PA... You can see such setups in almost all TFs, all times of the day in all pairs.

Updates on Signal Service

2009-05-29T19:58:00.001-07:00

The signal service (both trial and paid) has been going on well so far. In the past week, we had four 'up' days while Thursday was not good. We came right back on Friday and made close to 200 pips on Friday.

Overall, we have been doing well so far right from the time this service has started and I hope to continue to do a good or even better job in future. Anyone who is interested in joining this service and wants a trial of this service, please mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-28T17:46:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. Yesterday was quite a tough day for trading with the price going back and forth with no clear direction of the trend. I think that was due to a great fight between the bulls and bears trying to pull the price in their direction and i guess the bulls won finally.

There was a very good retracement back into the low 1.38s and we also saw a break of support which led me to believe that there would be a further downtrend. But the price came right back to support turned resistance and broke it back again and settled nicely above the support now.

On the downside, there is strong support at 1.39 and then 1.3860. If this is broken, then we have support at 1.3824 and i do not see price going below this.

On the upside, as before, there should be some very strong resistance at 1.4 and then 1.4050 and if 1.4050 does get broken, we should see price shoot up close to 1.42.

For today, i would expect a slight retracement into the low 1.39s and then i would expect price to get near 1.4 and the PA there would determine whether there will be a further uptrend.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-27T22:25:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. As in EU, this pair has also broken out of the range and has started its fall, though at a much lesser pace than EU which shows that this pair is quite strong when compared to EU.

But in any case, this pair has also broken the range. So we could see a retracement back to the support turned resistance and this could be a good place to place our shorts. So, we could see a retrace to 1.5950 and then we could see a drop.

On the downside, the support are at 1.5900 and then at 1.5870 and then at 1.5830.

On the upside, we should see resistance at 1.5960 and then at 1.6 and this price and 1.6050 has proved to be quite tough resistance for the past few days.

As for today, i expect a small retrace and then a drop towards the mid 1.58s.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-27T18:27:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. So finally, the range which has been existing for so many days has been broken. The big sized down bar shows the break of support. The low volume of that bar is a bit of a concern though cos usually during break of supports or resistances, the bar is big and the volume is also high.

Now we can expect a retrace back to the support turned resistance at 1.3855. The PA here should tell us the future direction. If the support turned resistance holds during the retrace, then we are going further down. If not, then we are going back up.

On the downside, we have support at 1.3835. A break of that could lead to the price going straight down to 1.3720.

On the upside, we have resistance at the broken support of 1.3860. A break of that could again open up 1.39 and then 1.3950.

For today, i expect a move back up to 1.3860 and as said above the PA there should then determine the next course of action. I would like to favor the downside but the low volume during the break of support is the one which confuses me.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-26T20:30:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. As in EU and as predicted in the articles in this blog, GU had a good move down and then it came right back up to finish the day where it began. The move up was based on good volume, which showed that the move was true and was backed up very well.

Now looking forward to today, there has been a good move up and a bit of ranging during the early part of the day. I would expect GU to move towards 1.600 where it should face a strong psychological resistance and then it should again face a strong resistance at 1.6050 from where i believe there should be a good retracement for atleast 200 pips.

On the upside, as specified above, we should see good resistance at 1.60 and then at around 1.6050 and i dont expect GU to go much above that today.

On the downside, GU should have good support at 1.5930 and then at 1.59. If this breaks, then we should go down to 1.5855.

Readers from FF, if you like this article, pls vote for it.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-26T18:04:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As expected and as specified in my article yesterday, EU went down very well and as specified, it went down till 1.3860. Then the bounce back up came about and this then carried EU right back up to where it was at the start of the day. This shows the strength of EU.

But last few hours EU seems to have been caught in a very tight range. As can be seen from the chart, for the last 8-10 hrs, EU seems to be caught in a range of 30 pips. This shows a very tight range and it also shows that when a breakout happens in either direction, it is going to be fast and strong and it is going to be a big move.

Anyway, on the downside, as specified yesterday, expect some support at around 1.3960 and then at 1.39. If these are broken, expect some strong support at 1.3860. I do not expect this support to be broken.

On the upside, there is strong resistance at around 1.4000 and then at 1.4050. It will take a huge effort for it to break this resistance.

Today, we might be in for another ranging day between 1.3860 and 1.4050 though EU has not shown a clear direction yet. Play the range till the breakout in either direction.

Fantastic Day of Trading

2009-05-26T09:58:00.000-07:00

It was a fantastic day for trading with all the expectations coming true. The price of all pairs moved down during the asian session. Then , as expected, there was a push up to catch people who wanted to go long. Once the longs were trapped, the price moved down again.

Then towards the beginning of the US session, there was a move up again and this was a fake move as was evident with the low volume associated with it. So, the low volume could not sustain the high price any longer and the price fell down again.

Then towards the middle of the US session, there was an up move again, but this time with higher volume which showed that there was something in this move. This is where we stand as i write and it would be interesting to see which way the price moves now.

The signals were given in my service accordingly and those who took all my calls made over 300 pips today. Many had to sleep during the London session but they too made more than 100 pips which made it a very satisfactory day for me and the subscribers.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-25T22:03:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of GBPUSD where, as expected, there has been tight ranging for the past 24 hours. The push up has been capped by strong resistance at 1.5930 and this has to be broken for any more upside.

On a personal basis, i dont see this resistance being broken and i guess we should have a down day today. If this pair does decide to go down, we should have strong support at around 1.5869. It will take a lot of effort to break this support but a break of this should make this pair go down to 1.5820 and then a break of this support should make this pair go down to 1.5750.

On the upside, a break of 1.5930 is needed for any more upside and a break of this, which is quite unlikely, should open up for further move to the strong psychological resistance at 1.6000.

For today, there might be a push up towards 1.5930 during Frankfurt followed by a fall during London. Lets see.

If you have reached this article through FF and if you like this article, please do vote for it at FF.

Daily Outlook on EURUSD

2009-05-25T18:30:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As expected, yesterday was a ranging day and there were no breakouts as such. Just before the London session start time (it did not start as it was a holiday, its just the time that i am talking abt here), there was a push up on the prices of all pairs just to trap some more longs into the false move. Lot of traders were caught off guard and the traders who were short with close SLs were hit.

It was obvious that it was a false move as such strength with such low volume is something that cannot be sustained for long. So, finally, the pair did start falling down but it was caught in a tight range between 1.4050 and 1.3960. The tight range continues even today though there seems to be break to the downside as i write.

For today, i would expect a break to the downside with 1.3960 serving as support and then followed by 1.3900. If these get broken , we should be going to 1.3860 and the PA there should tell us whether we can expect any more downside.

On the upside, we have resistances at 1.4010 and then at 1.4050 which i dont expect to be broken.

For today, expect a push up on all pairs close to the London session and then a big fall down.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-24T18:15:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As pointed out in my article yesterday, i believe that a retracement is due for this pair. Not only due to the fact that it has risen up too much but also due to the fact that the last rise through resistance was on low volume and hence such moves would not be supported too much for too long.

If the retracement does happen, the on the downside, we should good support at 1.3977 and if this support is broken, then we should see support at 1.39 and then at 1.3850. I do not see 1.3850 to be broken (atleast not today). It would be interesting to see PA and volume at lower prices to see if still lower prices are possible or whether we are going to jump right back up.

On the upside, there should be good resistance at 1.4050 and then a big resistance at 1.4150 and i dont see the price going up beyond this (atleast not today).

So, for today, we should see a bit of ranging and this ranging should have bias towards the downside though the holiday and low volume could make it easy for manipulation. Lets see.

Weekly Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-23T21:49:00.000-07:00

Attached is the weekly chart for EURUSD and lets analyse the weekly trend for EU and try to make some predictions for the upcoming week. Last week saw a one way movement in this pair. All previous resistances were broken, the retracements, if any, were very small and for short periods and the bullish uptrend was there for everyone to see.

On the last day, EU broke thru a major psychological resistance at 1.4000. Ah!! Great thing. One more resistance down and off we go next week, thats what we think. But look closer. Look at the attached 1H chart and look at the price movements when the pair broke through a huge resistance and look at the volume. Is this how the break through a resistance is supposed to happen ?? Note the declining volume... When a major resistance is broken, you expect a long bar with high volume followed by some more high volume bars where other traders join in after the break of resistance, buy more and more and push the prices higher.

That does not seem to have happened here where the break of resistance has happened in low volume. The next 2 days will be crucial for this pair. I would expect a retracement in this pair for atleast 100 pips though the bullish trend is still intact. Support during the retracement would be there at 1.39 and then at around 1.3850. Holiday on Monday could throw a spanner in the works but i would favor a retracement before any more bullish move. It would be interesting to watch PA during the retracement to see if the retracement transforms into a correction or whether we see a continuation of the uptrend after retracement.

Updates on signal service

2009-05-23T00:09:00.000-07:00

I have been quite busy with trading and attending to some personal work and hence have not been able to post any other stuff nor any updates on the signal service. Anyway, the first set of trials were over for the signal service and this trial was given to 67 people. As updated earlier, we had a bit of up and down first 2 days but the last 3 days were very good and we made more than 100 pips on each of those days.

Apart from this, there were 3 swing trade calls that were given which yielded a total of 400 pips. So overall the trial was good and then many of those on trial converted to the paid subscription. The first day of paid ones, i was quite busy as i had some personal work to catch up on. Hence, to compensate for the lack of signals, i had decided to extend the monthly paid service by a day. Yesterday, was a bit of a tough day cos the market was very quiet for most of the day but suddenly kept moving up against all expectations and hence it was a bit tough to manage.

We hope to have a great week ahead and i already have some possible trades lined up.

The trial would be a continuous thing and hence those who are interested can join up to try out the signal service for a week. Entries would always be open. Those who are interested can mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com .

This weekend, i would be a bit free and hence i will try and post some more articles..

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-21T18:25:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD and like the EU, this train also seems to have no stopping. Considering the volatility of this pair, yesterday would have been a terrible day to trade. Lots of fake moves and unless you are a very good trader, the whipsaws would really have burnt your account. Shows what the professionals would do to get your money. We had a raise, then a huge dip, then again a raise. Woof!!

Anyway, as in EU, the hourly and daily charts dont show any major resistance and we again have to go to the weekly to see any kind of resistance. But for the past few hours, the price seems to be stalling around 1.5880 but considering the fact that the last few hours marked the end of the US session, that does not seem to be a great surprise. We should see London showing us the way.

On the upside, we should see 1.5885 acting as decent resistance and if that gives way, we should go all the way close to 1.6 which should prove as a very good psychological resistance.

On the downside, there is good support at 1.5870 and then at 1.5810 and then a strong support at 1.5750. As In EU, i would expect a retrace to close to 1.58 and then the PA there should tell us the future direction.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-21T18:12:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD and so far, there seems to be no stopping this one way train. Even the retraces that take place are quite small showing how much strength is there in this pair. So where will it stop ?

Looking at the hourly charts, there does not seem to be any resistance in sight !! But 1.40 could prove to be a strong psychological resistance. Not because of any great previous resistance but just because its a round number. The daily charts also do not show any major resistances on the upside and we have to move to the weekly chart to find any resistances. Just shows you the power of the move so far. It would be interesting how this week ends up and that should give us an indication of the future direction.

On the upside, there should be some resistance close to 1.4 and if that manages to be broken succesfully, then the next resistance should be 1.4160.

On the downside, the support is at 1.39, then at 1.3875 and then at 1.38. Looking at how far it has gone up so far, i would expect a retrace in this pair to around 1.38 and the PA there should determine the next direction.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-20T18:13:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. As specified in my article yesterday and something that has been threatening to happen for the past couple of weeks, finally happened. EU finally managed to break through the major resistance at 1.3672. You can see the break happen in the big long bar. Thats how resistances are usually broken, in big long bars.

After the break, the price has gone up to the next resistance level at 1.3782 and is now resting near the same. There has not been much retracement after the break. This signals 2 possibilities. First one is that there might be a retracement into the high 1.36s and close to the broken resistance. Second possibility is that this lack of retracement shows great strength and hence higher prices. For this second possibility to come true, the previous high of 1.3815 needs to be broken. Till that time, we can safely short any approach towards 1.38.

On the downside, the supports are at 1.3750 and then at 1.3680 and i dont see 1.3680 being broken.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.3815 and then at 1.3920. I expect a bit of retracement today followed by an upmove and dont expect the support at 1.3680 to be broken.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-19T22:07:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was a big day for GBPUSD. It managed to break a resistance which had been proving to be very strong over the past few weeks. Attached is the 1H chart for GU. The resistance was at around 1.5350 and it had not been broken for quite sometime. Now it has finally been broken, and the bigger thing was that it managed to hold up over the resistance for the whole day.

We had a small retrace towards the small support at 1.5442 and it was indeed surprising that it has not revisited the broken resistance at 1.5350 as it usually does.

Anyway, looking ahead, 1.5350 should serve as a strong support and 1.55 should serve as strong resistance. GU has been trying to break 1.55 for quite sometime now and i assume its only a matter of time before its broken. This resistance has psychological value to it more than anything else.

We could also have a small retrace before the big move to break 1.55. On the downside, the support are at 1.5442 and then at 1.5380 and then at 1.5350 and i dont see 1.5350 being broken today.

On the upside, 1.55 should serve as good resistance and then next resistance is at 1.5625. 1.55 should serve as huge resistance though.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-19T18:06:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. As expected, it made a good upmove yesterday but still it was not able to break the strong upper resistance at around 1.3672. Since the failure at 1.3672, it has retraced back and is no consolidating at lower levels.

There is an important news coming up later in the day which is the FOMC meeting minutes which is usually a big market mover. I believe that market would be waiting for the news during the day and hence i would not bet on any major moves before that. In fact, i would expect some more retraement before the news.

On the downside, there is strong support at 1.3611 and then at 1.3550 and i do not expect the price to fall much below these 2 support levels. We should see a lot of ranging between 1.3550 and 1.3672 during the course of the day.

On the upside, as pointed out, there should be strong resistance at around 1.3672 and i do not expect this to be broken during the early part of the day.

As for the overall direction for the day, there should be ranging and consolidation between 1.3550 and 1.3672. I would try and play the range between the SRs at 1.3550, 1.3611 and 1.3672 and breakout on either side of 1.3550 or 1.3672 would make me take the trade in that direction for a big ride. I would like to stick my neck out and say that today could be the day when 1.3672 is broken and we could see a large upside.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-18T21:03:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. As specified in my article yesterday, EU could not breach the lows of 1.3428 and did make a strong move towards 1.3500. The fact that it closed the day above 1.35 shows that there is lot of strength in this pair.

So, now unless the low of 1.3428 is broken, we should see EU moving up. The fact that it made a dip yesterday and then rose right back up shows that there has been good demand at the lower levels and we should be seeing much more upside in this pair. I believe that this pair should be reaching the previous highs that are close to 1.37 quite soon.

On the upside, EU should face resistance at 1.3580 and then at 1.3611. Break of this resistance should lead to the price moving towards 1.3672 where a huge resistance exists.

On the downside, the supports are at 1.3550 and then at 1.3520 and a strong support at 1.3490. I favor the upside for today. watch out for a retrace towards 1.35 though.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-17T22:18:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. GBPUSD has been looking weak for the past few days along with EU and has visited its lows at around 1.5075 twice over the last few days. It now has major support at 1.5137 and then just below at 1.5075.

I believe that it will take some time for GU to break these 2 supports and we could see a retracement back into 1.52 and the price action there would tell us whether the pair would continue up or would start moving down once again.

On the downside, as pointed out, there would be strong supports at 1.5137 and then at 1.5075. A break of these supports would lead to a drop to the round number at 1.50.

On the upside, the targets are 1.5175 and then 1.5250. I expect a retracement back to 1.52 for today and then a break of 1.5250 will signal a further upmove and a coninuation of the uptrend... A break of 1.5075 will signal a down move.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-17T18:42:00.001-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. The fall from 1.37 continues and this shows that 1.37 has indeed proved to be a temporary and the 2 day bearish pin bar seems to have worked just fine.

EU is now close to a very strong temporary support at 1.3428 and this could be a place for small longs with tight SL the first time that it visits this price. With the strong support just below, i am looking for a small retracement back to the 1.35s and after that, it purely depends on the price action on whether it wants to continue up or go down.

As pointed out, on the downside, the support is at 1.3428 and the break of that could lead to 1.3380 and then to 1.33 which should again be a very strong support.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.3460 and then at the round number at 1.35. A break of this could then lead to 1.3550 and at this point, it will be important to see if this resistance is broken convincingly. If yes, then we are going back up. If no, if are continuing down.

Market and the Frictionless Ball

2009-05-17T03:04:00.000-07:00

All of you would have seen the supports and resistances which i provide to all on a daily basis. These S and R are points in which the price is expected to stall and also there is a greater probability of the price falling from the resistance than it breaking. Thats what make the S and R useful and powerful.

But the big mistake that many traders make is to follow the S and R blindly. When the price nears a support or a resistance, we need to analyse the market situation as well as the market sentiment before we decide whether we are going to enter into the trade or not.

The market is like the frictionless ball which keeps rolling in one direction unless and until acted upon by a force. Everyday, atleast 3 forces act on the ball (market). These are the begin of the Asian session, European session and the American session. Apart from these three forces, there could be other forces like news, press conferences, rate hikes etc. but everyday will have atleast 3 forces. Lets say that in the begin of the Asian session, the ball is rolling in favor of the longs. The Asian traders would either choose to slow down the ball or force it to travel in the same direction faster or force it to reverse. Whichever is the direction, the ball keeps rolling in that direction till the begin of the European session (unless there is some news in between. If there is news, then that would be another force which will make the ball gain momentum or change direction). Likewise, the European traders would also make the ball move in a specific direction (either same or reverse). This trend continues during the American session as well and would be interrupted only by news etc.

So when entering a trade based on S and R, it is important to know what time it is and which direction the ball is rolling. The best example would be a day when in the begin of the Asian session, the ball began to roll in the direction of the longs. This continued in the Euro session as well. So midway, through the Euro session it would be foolish to enter into a short just cos we have met a resistance. The ball is rolling in favor of longs from the Asian session and continues thru the Euro session and since there has been nothing to change that direction, it is expected to roll in that direction only till the next force (like the news or begin of American session) comes in. So in such cases, it is better to wait for the next force to come in to get the correct direction (whether the force continues the move in the same direction or reverses it) before entering in the market. For example, on the above day, it would not have been a great idea to enter into shorts at any time just cos a resistance was near.

So always keep in mind the frictionless ball and trade accordingly.

Latest Updates on Signal Service Trial

2009-05-16T11:44:00.000-07:00

The signal service has been going on for the past 3 days as trial. It has 57 subscribers for the trial. The first day was a good day, the trend was easy and neat and quite a few pips were made during that day. 17 calls were given on that day and only 2 were losses. Rest of the calls all turned into good profits.

The second day was a tough day to trade and hence very few calls were given and towards the end of the day, we were just above break even. But the last 2 hours of the trading day was good and 6 calls were made during that period yielding 142 pips in those 2 hours.

The third day (Friday) was a freaky day with prices moving back and forth and trading proving highly difficult. Trading was a struggle till midway of the trading day when a signal was given to long GJ and i requested people to hold it beyond the SL which was wrong on my part. The DD was close to 200 pips but i still felt that long was the way to go. The price came right back up vindicating my belief but by then few traders had closed at a loss. Couple of long calls were given on GJ and EJ which helped recover losses for some of the traders while some others were either stuck with the trade or with the loss.

143.4 still is strong support for GJ.

Last 3 days had 2 swing trades on EURCAD and USDCAD which yielded more than 300 pips which made it a decently profitable week for those who took all my trades.

I have decided to extend the trial by one more day to compensate for the Freaky Friday and hope to make good progress over the next 3 trading days.

My day trades are based on 5M and 15M and usually require less than 50 pips as SL and my swing trades are based on daily or weekly charts and need 200 pips as SL and have 200-300 pips as TP. The trades are based on simple PA and are straight get-in get-out type.. No confusing algos or indicators.

Many trades and types of trades are taken to enable people who prefer different ways of trading and who live in different time zones to take trades. It also helps people, irrespective of the time zone that they live in , to make atleast 50 pips in 2-3 hrs of trading time. Thats why i give more than 30-40 calls a day as i want to cover as many traders as possible at various points of time.

Looking forward to another 3 great trading days.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-14T18:15:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of GBPUSD. This pair, like EU, also has been showing some good strength. The comments from King does seem to have affected it and hence there was quite a big fall of about 300 pips but this fall only provided us an opportunity to buy cheap.

This pair does seem to have a strong support at 1.51 and for now, as can be seen from the charts, this pair has been trading in a small range for quite a few hours now. There seems to be a small support at 1.5215 for now.

On the downside, the major support are at 1.52 and then at 1.5137 followed by a huge support at 1.5075. This last support is a big support and is unlikely to be broken in a hurry.

On the upside, the resistances are at 1.5250, 1.53 and a major resistance, with previous highs, at around 1.5340. This last major resistance needs to be broken for any more upside.

For today, i have an upside bias and i expect a small retracement back into 1.51s and then a move above 1.5250. It would be interesting to see whether the previous highs at 1.5335 is taken out convincingly and if they are, we should be in for a big ride.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-14T18:05:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. This pair continues to show amazing strength. It seems to be unmindful of bearish pin bars in 2day or 4H and just simply wants to keep going up.

I guess the strength of the USD has been only short lived and we may seen another leg up soon on this pair. The 1H chart shows some small support at 1.3520 for this pair.

On the downside the supports are at 1.3611 and 1.3575. A break of these two should lead to the very strong support at around 1.3550 and i do not expect price to fall below this strong support.

On the upside, the resistance are at 1.3650 and then very closely at 1.3672 which should prove to be a very strong resistance. The next major resistance is around the round figure at 1.37. We need a good break of this for any more upside.

For today, i expect more ranging . I would try to trade the range with bias to the upside and if there is a break in either direction (below 1.3550 or 1.37), then i would tend to take the trade in that direction for a big ride.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-13T18:47:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. By the look of things, EU seems to have reached a temporary. It faced stiff resistance at around 1.37 and the volume and the price bar at that level was enough indication that the buyers did not like that high price.

So, from 1.37, it has fallen more than 100 pips now. This pair now has strong support at 1.3550 and it will take a bit of time for this support to get broken.

On the downside, there is strong support at 1.3550. A clean break of that could lead to 1.3450 and a break of that could lead to 1.33. This pair looks bearish to me and hence i would be looking for break of supports or a retracement on the upper side to enter shorts.

On the upper side, there is small resistance at 1.3611 and a strong one at 1.3672. I do not expect this resistance to be broken but if it does, we are bak to being bullish again and we should face next resistance at 1.37 which should be a major one.

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-13T01:12:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. As can be seen, like EU, GU is also showing a lot of strength. At this point of time, GU has lot of support at 1.52. As pointed out for EU, as the price goes down for GU, the volume also decreases which shows that the big buyers are not interested in lower prices.

For today, i dont see GU going below yesterdays low of 1.52 where there is huge support. Even if price dips lower, it will only be a place to buy more rather than sell.

For now, GU and EU are caught in small ranges due to strong supports and resistances but i favor longs in both and would buy dips.

For today, the strong support is at 1.52 and resistances are at 1.53 and then at 1.5350. If the resistance at 1.5350 is broken we should be aiming for 1.54 and then 1.55.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-12T20:25:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of EURUSD. To be honest, this strength of Euro surprises me a bit. I had expected a top around 1.37 and then i expected a big fall once some distribution had taken place at the top. But the fall does not seem to have come at all. Atleast not yet. On the other hand, EU is showing great strength. Yesterday, it broke through one of its major resistances at 1.3670 and then has retraced a bit.

The very important thing to notice here is the fact that all retracements have been on low volume and all up moves have been on higher volume which shows the underlying strength of this pair.

For today, the support will be at yesterdays low which is around 1.36. There should be strong resistance at around 1.3750 and then the round number of 1.38 but considering the underlying strength, i would expect EU to go up more and all these resistances to be broken, if not today, then very soon.

I do not expect EU to go down below yesterdays low of 1.36. Expect more upside today with support as 1.36..

Updates on signal service

2009-05-12T11:16:00.000-07:00

I will be starting my trial of the signal service tomorrow. I have added all those who have sent me their yahoo ids. I can see that some of you have still not added me. Hence those guys wont be receiving my signals unless and until they add me. The trial will be for 5 trading days.

I will be continuing my updates tomorrow on this blog. It has been a slow day for me today getting back from vacation. Hope to be up to full speed tomorrow.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-11T20:35:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As written in my blog some days back, EU was indeed in a strong uptrend and has managed to reach 1.3650. It has a huge resistance at 1.3672 and it has been struggling to overcome that for the past 3-4 days. It did make its way to a small support at 1.3550 and now it is caught between the range at 1.3550 and 1.3672.

This ranging could continue for some more time and we could see a breakout later on. As can be seen, there is low volume when price goes down which shows lack of interest in lower prices and so EU should hover around 1.36 and should not go down by much today.

For today, there is strong support at 1.3550 and break of that could lead to 1.3489 and then a strong support at 1.3428 and i dont see this pair breaking down below that. On the upside, there is strong resistance at 1.3672 and with no major news today, i dont see this pair breaking this resistance today.

Expect more ranging today. I am back from vacation just today and have not yet developed a full feel for the market yet. So excuse me if some of my analysis is not right for today.

Updates on signal service

2009-05-11T20:08:00.000-07:00

I will be starting the signal service trial tomorrow or day after (May 13 or 14). So far, 46 people have signalled an intention to join the trial. Today will be the last day for me to taking entries for this trial as i have to make some arrangement before i launch it. For those who have already expressed an intent to join and also for those who want to join it today, please send me your yahoo messenger id as i will be giving signals over that only. If you have already given me your yahoo id, you need not resend.

I will be mailing out details on the trial to all those who have expressed an interest, sometime later today.

Back From Vacation

2009-05-11T19:58:00.000-07:00

I am back from vacation just about an hour back. Nice and refreshed though a little bit tired. Will take a day or two to get a feel for the market. Will start updating the blog again from today..

Daily Outlook for GBPUSD

2009-05-06T22:20:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for GBPUSD. Similar to EURUSD, yesterday was a ranging day for GU as well considering all the news that has been lined up today. Today should be a fun day for all pairs and it should be more fun tomorrow as well with several pairs breaking out of ranges and pairs reversing their current trends. Its a pity that i wont be around for the next 2 trading days.

Anyway, coming back to GU, as can be seen from the ranging yesterday, the support is at 1.5015 and the resistance is at 1.5150. All the news today should break this pair out of this range.

As in EU, the strength so far shows that longs could be in serious play later in the day and i expect a breakout to the upside after all the news releases today. On the upside, the first resistance would of course be the highs of yesterday which is 1.5150. A break of this should clear the way for a move towards 1.54 with small resistances in between at 1.5250 and 1.53.

On the downside, we should have good support at 1.51 and 1.5010 and i do not expect 1.5010 to be broken today. If it does get broken, the next major support would be at 1.4900 and 1.4770.

Daily Outlook for EURUSD

2009-05-06T19:00:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart for EURUSD. As can be seen, EU has continued merrily with its ranging for the whole day yesterday. This is something that was expected as there is so much of news today. We should be expecting a breakout today and considering the strength of EU so far, i believe that EU will breakout on the upside today.

On the upside, the targets would be 1.3336 and if this is broken , then there will be a small resistance at yesterday's high at around 1.3370. If this is broken, then there should be a major resistance at 1.3428 which has seen previous highs and hence should be a strong resistance. A break of this should open up 1.36 and then 1.37.

On the downside the supports will be at 1.3275, then yesterdays low at 1.3214 and then a major support at 1.3184. I dont expect this support to be broken but if it does get broken, then we should be looking at 1.31 and 1.3050.

Updates on GBPJPY and future direction

2009-05-06T07:31:00.000-07:00

Attached is the 1H chart of GJ. Today morning, we saw GJ going down nicely to its big support at 146.88. The pace with which the move was made and that too during the Asian session gave us the indication that something was not right with the move down.

Usually, in any sudden move up or down, we need look out for pin bars which tell us that there is a change of the price move. As can be seen in the chart, a bullish pin bar at the swing low was an indication that price would reverse and thats what it did.

You can also see that at every swing point, the price bars clearly tell you the change the direction. All you need to do is watch the bars and take the trade accordingly. Any bar finishing near its middle after piercing through a support or resistance shows change in the direction of price movement and thats what you can clearly see in all the bars where there was a reversal.

The fact that there was no more down movement after the Asian session and the fact that the price has recovered somewhat shows that there is still strength left in GJ and it looks good for more. Long on dips is the way to go.